MyLab Operations Management with Pearson eText -- Access Card -- for Operations Management: Sustainability and Supply Chain Management

12th Edition

ISBN: 9780134165325

Author: Jay Heizer, Barry Render, Chuck Munson

Publisher: PEARSON

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Forecasting

Forecasting is a methodology that uses historical data as inputs to make well-informed predictions about the course of future trends. Forecasting is the method of making forecasts based on historical and current data, most commonly by trend analysis. In …

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Textbook Question

Chapter 4, Problem 34P

Question

•••• 4.49 Boulanger Savings and Loan is proud of its long tradition in Winter Park, Florida. Begun by Michelle Boulanger 22 years after World War II, the S&L has bucked the trend of financial and liquidity problems that has repeatedly plagued the industry. Deposits have increased slowly but surely over the years, despite recessions in 1983, 1988, 1821, 2001, and 2010. Ms. Boulanger believes it is necessary to have a long-range strategic plan for her firm, including a 1-year forecast and preferably even a 5-year forecast of deposits. She examines the past deposit data and also peruses Florida’s gross state product (GSP) over the same 44 years. (GSP is analogous to gross national product [GNP] but on the state level.) The resulting data are in the following table.

Chapter 4, Problem 34P, Question 4.49 Boulanger Savings and Loan is proud of its long tradition in Winter Park, Florida. , example 1

Chapter 4, Problem 34P, Question 4.49 Boulanger Savings and Loan is proud of its long tradition in Winter Park, Florida. , example 2

a. Using exponential smoothing, with α =.6, then trend analysis, and finally linear regression, discuss which forecasting model fits best for Boulanger’s strategic plan. Justify the selection of one model over another.
1. b. Carefully examine the data. Can you make a case for excluding a portion of the information? Why? Would that change your choice of model?

Refer to My OMLab for these additional homework problems: 4.50–4.62

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Chapter 4, Problem 33P

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Chapter 4 Solutions

MyLab Operations Management with Pearson eText -- Access Card -- for Operations Management: Sustainability and Supply Chain Management

Ch. 4 - What is a qualitative foretasting model, and when...Ch. 4 - Identify and briefly describe the two general...Ch. 4 - Identify the three forecasting time horizons....Ch. 4 - Briefly describe the steps that are used to...Ch. 4 - A skeptical manager asks what medium-range...Ch. 4 - Explain why such forecasting devices as moving...Ch. 4 - What is the basic difference between a weighted...Ch. 4 - What three methods are used to determine the...Ch. 4 - Research and briefly describe the Delphi...Ch. 4 - What is the primary difference between a...

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