Business Analytics (2nd Edition)
2nd Edition
ISBN: 9780321997821
Author: James R. Evans
Publisher: PEARSON
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Chapter 3, Problem 4PE
A national homebuilder builds single-family homes and condominium-style townhouses. The Excel file House Sales provides information on the selling price, lot cost, type of home, and region of the country (Midwest, South) for closings during 1 month. Construct a
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Business
3. Bayesian Inference – Updating Beliefs
A medical test for a rare disease has the following characteristics:
Sensitivity (true positive rate): 99%
Specificity (true negative rate): 98%
The disease occurs in 0.5% of the population.
A patient receives a positive test result.
Questions:
a) Define the relevant events and use Bayes’ Theorem to compute the probability that the patient actually has the disease.b) Explain why the result might seem counterintuitive, despite the high sensitivity and specificity.c) Discuss how prior probabilities influence posterior beliefs in Bayesian inference.d) Suppose a second, independent test with the same accuracy is conducted and is also positive. Update the probability that the patient has the disease.
4. Linear Regression - Model Assumptions and Interpretation
A real estate analyst is studying how house prices (Y) are related to house size in square feet (X). A simple
linear regression model is proposed:
The analyst fits the model and obtains:
•
Ŷ50,000+150X
YBoB₁X + €
•
R² = 0.76
• Residuals show a fan-shaped pattern when plotted against fitted values.
Questions:
a) Interpret the slope coefficient in context.
b) Explain what the R² value tells us about the model's performance.
c) Based on the residual pattern, what regression assumption is likely violated? What might be the
consequence?
d) Suggest at least two remedies to improve the model, based on the residual analysis.
Chapter 3 Solutions
Business Analytics (2nd Edition)
Ch. 3 - Create a line chart for the closing prices for all...Ch. 3 - Create a pie chart showing the breakdown of...Ch. 3 - The Excel tile Facebook Survey provides data...Ch. 3 - A national homebuilder builds single-family homes...Ch. 3 - Create a bubble chart for the first five colleges...Ch. 3 - Construct a column chart for the data in the Excel...Ch. 3 - The Excel file Internet Usage provides data about...Ch. 3 - Construct an appropriate chart to show the...Ch. 3 - In the Excel file Banking Data, apply the...Ch. 3 - Apply three different colors of data bars to...
Ch. 3 - For the Store and Regional Sales database, apply a...Ch. 3 - For the Excel file Closing Stock Prices, Apply...Ch. 3 - Convert the Store and Regional Sales database to...Ch. 3 - Prob. 14PECh. 3 - Prob. 15PECh. 3 - Prob. 16PECh. 3 - Prob. 17PECh. 3 - In the Purchase Orders database, conduct a Pareto...Ch. 3 - Use Excels filtering capability to (1) extract all...Ch. 3 - Prob. 20PECh. 3 - The Excel file Credit Risk Date Provides...Ch. 3 - Prob. 22PECh. 3 - Prob. 23PECh. 3 - A community health-status survey obtained the...Ch. 3 - Prob. 25PECh. 3 - Prob. 26PECh. 3 - Prob. 27PECh. 3 - Prob. 28PECh. 3 - Prob. 29PECh. 3 - Prob. 30PECh. 3 - Find the 10th and 90th percentiles and 1st, 2nd,...Ch. 3 - Construct cross-tabulations of Gender versus...Ch. 3 - Use PivotTables to construct a cross-tabulation...Ch. 3 - Use PivotTables to construct a cross-tabulation...Ch. 3 - Create a PivotTable to find the average amount of...Ch. 3 - Use PivotTables to find the number of loans by...Ch. 3 - Use PivotTables to find the number of sales...Ch. 3 - Create a PivotTable for the data in the Excel file...Ch. 3 - The Excel File Rins Gym provides sample data on...Ch. 3 - Create useful dashboards for each of the following...Ch. 3 - A marketing researcher surveyed 92 individuals,...
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