Chapter 26, Problem 2MC

You are a vice president of Rensselaer Advisers (RA), which manages portfolios for institutional investors (primarily corporate pension plans) and wealthy individuals. In mid-2017 RA had about $1.1 billion under management, invested in a wide range of common-stock and fixed-income portfolios. Its management fees average 55 basis points (.55%), so RA’s total revenue for 2017 will be about.0055 × $1.1 billion = $6.05 million.

You are attempting to land a new client. Madison Mills, a conservative, long-established manufacturer of papermaking felt. Madison has established a defined-benefit pension plan for its employees. R A would manage the pension assets that Madison has set aside to cover defined-benefit obligations for retired employees.

Defined benefit means that an employer is committed to pay retirement income according to a formula. For example, annual retirement income could equal 40% of the employee’s average salary in the five years prior to retirement. In a defined-benefit plan, retirement income does not depend on the performance of the pension assets. If the assets in the fund are not sufficient to cover pension benefits, the company is required to contribute enough additional cash to cover the shortfall. Thus the PV of promised retirement benefits is a debt-equivalent obligation of the company.³⁵

Table 26.6 shows Madison’s obligations to its already retired employees from 2018 to 2036. Each of these employees receives a fixed dollar amount each month. Total dollar payments decline as the employees die off. The PV of the obligations in Table 26.6 is about $89 million at the current (2017) 5% long-term interest rate. Table 26.6 also calculates the duration of the obligations at 7.87 years.

Madison has set aside $90 million in pension assets to cover the obligations in Table 26.6, so this part of its pension plan is fully funded.³⁶ The pension assets are now invested in a diversified portfolio of common stocks, corporate bonds, and notes.

After reviewing Madison’s existing portfolio, you schedule a meeting with Hendrik van Wie, Madison’s CFO. Mr. van Wie stresses Madison’s conservative management philosophy and warns against “speculation.” He complains about the performance of the previous manager of the pension assets. He suggests that you propose a plan of investing in safe assets in a way that minimizes exposure to equity markets and changing interest rates. You promise to prepare an illustration of how this goal could be achieved.

Later you discover that RA has competition for Madisons investment management business. SPX Associates is proposing a strategy of investing 70% of the portfolio ($63 million) in index funds tracking the U.S. stock market and 30% of the portfolio ($27 million) in U.S. Treasury securities. SPX argues that their strategy is “safe in the long run,” because the U.S. stock market has delivered an average risk premium of about 7% per year. In addition, SPX argues that the growth in its stock market portfolio will far outstrip Madison’s pension obligations. SPX also claims that the $27 million invested in Treasuries will provide ample protection against short-term stock market volatility. Finally, SPX proposes to charge an investment management fee of only 20 basis points (.20%). RA had planned to charge 30 basis points (.30%).

Sorry, you lost. SPX won and implemented its proposed strategy. Now the recession of 2018 has knocked down U.S. stock prices by 20%. The value of the Madison portfolio, after paying benefits for 2018, has fallen from $90 million to $78 million. At the same time interest rates have dropped from 5% to 4% as the Federal Reserve relaxes monetary policy to combat the recession.

Mr. van Wie calls again, chastened by the SPX experience, and he invites a new proposal to invest the pension assets in a way that minimizes exposure to the stock market and changing interest rates. Update your memo with a new example of how to accomplish Mr. van Wie’s objectives. You can use the same portfolios and portfolio durations as in Question 1. You will have to recalculate the PV and duration of the pension benefits from 2019 onward. Assume a flat term structure with all interest rates at 4%. (Hint: Madison’s pension obligations are now underfunded. Nevertheless you can hedge interest rate risk if you increase the duration of the pension assets.)