Chapter 22, Problem 23P

Genenco is developing a new drug that will slow the aging process. In order to succeed, two breakthroughs are needed: one to increase the potency of the drug, and the second to eliminate toxic side effects. Research to improve the drug’s potency is expected to require an upfront investment of $1 0 million and take 2 years; the drug has a 5% chance of success. Reducing the drug's toxicity will require a $30 million upfront investment, take 4 years, and has a 20% chance of success. If both efforts are successful, Genenco can sell the patent for the drug to a major drug company for $2 billion. All risk is idiosyncratic, and the risk-free rate is 6%.

1. a. What is the NPV of launching both research efforts simultaneously?
2. b. What is the optimal order to stage the investments?
3. c. What is the NPV with the optimal staging?