EBK STATISTICS FOR BUSINESS & ECONOMICS
EBK STATISTICS FOR BUSINESS & ECONOMICS
12th Edition
ISBN: 9780100460461
Author: Anderson
Publisher: YUZU
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Chapter 21.3, Problem 8E

Consider a variation of the PDC decision tree shown in Figure 21.5. The company must first decide whether to undertake the market research study. If the market research study is conducted, the outcome will either be favorable (F) or unfavorable (U). Assume there are only two decision alternatives d1 and d2 and two states of nature s1 and s2. The payoff table showing profit is as follows:

  State of Nature
Decision Alternative s1 s2
d1 100 300
d2 400 200
  1. a. Show the decision tree.
  2. b. Use the following probabilities. What is the optimal decision strategy?
P(F) = .56 P(s1 | F) = .57 P(s1 | U) = .18 P(s1) = .40
P(U) = .44 P(s2 | F) = .43 P(s2 | U) = .82 P(s2) = .60
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