Statistics for Business & Economics
12th Edition
ISBN: 9781285528830
Author: David R. Anderson
Publisher: Cengage Learning US
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Chapter 21.3, Problem 12E
Martin’s Service Station is considering entering the snowplowing business for the coming winter season. Martin can purchase either a snowplow blade attachment for the station’s pick-up truck or a new heavy-duty snowplow truck. After analyzing the situation, Martin believes that either alternative would be a profitable investment if the snowfall is heavy. Smaller profits would result if the snowfall is moderate, and losses would result if the snowfall is light. The following profits/losses apply.
The probabilities for the states of nature are P(s1) = .4, P(s2) = .3, and P(s3) = .3. Suppose that Martin decides to wait until September before making a final decision. Assessments of the probabilities associated with a normal (N) or unseasonably cold (U) September are as follows:
| P(N) = .8 | P(s1 | N ) 5 .35 | P(s1 | U ) 5 .62 |
| P(U) = .2 | P(s2 | N ) 5 .30 | P(s2 | U ) 5 .31 |
| P(s3 | N ) 5 .35 | P(s3 | U ) 5 .07 |
- a. Construct a decision tree for this problem.
- b. W hat is the recommended decision if Martin does not wait until September? What is the
expected value ? - c. W hat is the expected value of perfect information?
- d. W hat is Martin’s optimal decision strategy if the decision is not made until the September weather is determined? What is the expected value of this decision strategy?
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Chapter 21 Solutions
Statistics for Business & Economics
Ch. 21.2 - Prob. 1ECh. 21.2 - A decision maker faced with four decision...Ch. 21.2 - Hudson Corporation is considering three options...Ch. 21.2 - Myrtle Air Express decided to offer direct service...Ch. 21.2 - The distance from Potsdam to larger markets and...Ch. 21.2 - Seneca Hill Winery recently purchased land for the...Ch. 21.2 - The Lake Placid Town Council has decided to build...Ch. 21.3 - Consider a variation of the PDC decision tree...Ch. 21.3 - A real estate investor has the opportunity to...Ch. 21.3 - Dante Development Corporation is considering...
Ch. 21.3 - Hales TV Productions is considering producing a...Ch. 21.3 - Martins Service Station is considering entering...Ch. 21.3 - Lawsons Department Store faces a buying decision...Ch. 21.4 - Suppose that you are given a decision situation...Ch. 21.4 - In the following profit payoff table for a...Ch. 21.4 - To save on expenses, Rona and Jerry agreed to form...Ch. 21.4 - The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide...Ch. 21 - An investor wants to select one of seven mutual...Ch. 21 - Warren Lloyd is interested in leasing a new car...Ch. 21 - Hemmingway, Inc. is considering a 50 million...Ch. 21 - Embassy Publishing Company received a six-chapter...Ch. 21 - Lawsuit Defense Strategy John Campbell, an...
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