Bundle: Statistics for Business & Economics, Loose-Leaf Version, 13th + MindTap Business Statistics with XLSTAT, 1 term (6 months) Printed Access Card
13th Edition
ISBN: 9781337148092
Author: David R. Anderson, Dennis J. Sweeney, Thomas A. Williams, Jeffrey D. Camm, James J. Cochran
Publisher: Cengage Learning
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Chapter 21.2, Problem 6E
Seneca Hill Winery recently purchased land for the purpose of establishing a new vineyard. Management is considering two varieties of white grapes for the new vineyard: Chardonnay and Riesling. The Chardonnay grapes would be used to produce a dry Chardonnay wine, and the Riesling grapes would be used to produce a semi-dry Riesling wine. It takes approximately four years from the time of planting before new grapes can be harvested. This length of time creates a great deal of uncertainty concerning future demand and makes the decision concerning the type of grapes to plant difficult. Three possibilities are being considered: Chardonnay grapes only; Riesling grapes only; and both Chardonnay and Riesling grapes. Seneca management decided that for planning purposes it would be adequate to consider only two demand possibilities for each type of wine: strong or weak. With two possibilities for each type of wine it was necessary to assess four probabilities. With the help of some forecasts in industry publications management made the following
| Riesling Demand | ||
| Chardonnay Demand | Weak | Strong |
| Weak | .05 | .50 |
| Strong | .25 | .20 |
Revenue projections show an annual contribution to profit of $20,000 if Seneca Hill only plants Chardonnay grapes and demand is weak for Chardonnay wine, and $70,000 if the company only plants Chardonnay grapes and demand is strong for Chardonnay wine. If the company only plants Riesling grapes, the annual profit projection is $25,000 if demand is weak for Riesling grapes and $45,000 if demand is strong for Riesling grapes. If Seneca plants both types of grapes, the annual profit projections are as shown in the following table.
| Riesling Demand | ||
| Chardonnay Demand | Weak | Strong |
| Weak | $22,000 | $40,000 |
| Strong | $26,000 | $60,000 |
- a. What is the decision to be made, what is the chance
event , and what is the consequence? Identify the alternatives for the decisions and the possible outcomes for the chance events. - b. Develop a decision tree.
- c. Use the
expected value approach to recommend which alternative Seneca Hill Winery should follow in order to maximize expected annual profit. - d. Suppose management is concerned about the probability assessments when demand for Chardonnay wine is strong. Some believe it is likely for Riesling demand to also be strong in this case. Suppose the probability of strong demand for Chardonnay and weak demand for Riesling is .05 and that the probability of strong demand for Chardonnay and strong demand for Riesling is .40. How does this change the recommended decision? Assume that the probabilities when Chardonnay demand is weak are still .05 and .50.
- e. Other members of the management team expect the Chardonnay market to become saturated at some point in the future, causing a fall in prices. Suppose that the annual profit projections fall to $50,000 when demand for Chardonnay is strong and Chardonnay grapes only are planted. Using the original probability assessments, determine how this change would affect the optimal decision.
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Chapter 21 Solutions
Bundle: Statistics for Business & Economics, Loose-Leaf Version, 13th + MindTap Business Statistics with XLSTAT, 1 term (6 months) Printed Access Card
Ch. 21.2 - Prob. 1ECh. 21.2 - A decision maker faced with four decision...Ch. 21.2 - Hudson Corporation is considering three options...Ch. 21.2 - Myrtle Air Express decided to offer direct service...Ch. 21.2 - The distance from Potsdam to larger markets and...Ch. 21.2 - Seneca Hill Winery recently purchased land for the...Ch. 21.2 - The Lake Placid Town Council has decided to build...Ch. 21.3 - Consider a variation of the PDC decision tree...Ch. 21.3 - A real estate investor has the opportunity to...Ch. 21.3 - Dante Development Corporation is considering...
Ch. 21.3 - Hales TV Productions is considering producing a...Ch. 21.3 - Martins Service Station is considering entering...Ch. 21.3 - Lawsons Department Store faces a buying decision...Ch. 21.4 - Suppose that you are given a decision situation...Ch. 21.4 - In the following profit payoff table for a...Ch. 21.4 - To save on expenses, Rona and Jerry agreed to form...Ch. 21.4 - The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide...Ch. 21 - An investor wants to select one of seven mutual...Ch. 21 - Warren Lloyd is interested in leasing a new car...Ch. 21 - Hemmingway, Inc. is considering a 50 million...Ch. 21 - Embassy Publishing Company received a six-chapter...Ch. 21 - Lawsuit Defense Strategy John Campbell, an...
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