The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): State of Nature Low Demand Medium Demand High Demand Decision Alternative s1 s2 s3 Manufacture, d1 -20 40 100 Purchase, d2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.35, P(s2) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30. Use a decision tree to recommend a decision. Recommended decision: Use EVPI to determine whether Gorman should attempt to obtain a better estimate of demand. EVPI: $ A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expected to report either a favorable (F) or unfavorable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are as follows: P(F | s1) = 0.10 P(U | s1) = 0.90 P(F | s2) = 0.40 P(U | s2) = 0.60 P(F | s3) = 0.60 P(U | s3) = 0.40 What is the probability that the market research report will be favorable? If required, round your answer to three decimal places.
The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): State of Nature Low Demand Medium Demand High Demand Decision Alternative s1 s2 s3 Manufacture, d1 -20 40 100 Purchase, d2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.35, P(s2) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30. Use a decision tree to recommend a decision. Recommended decision: Use EVPI to determine whether Gorman should attempt to obtain a better estimate of demand. EVPI: $ A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expected to report either a favorable (F) or unfavorable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are as follows: P(F | s1) = 0.10 P(U | s1) = 0.90 P(F | s2) = 0.40 P(U | s2) = 0.60 P(F | s3) = 0.60 P(U | s3) = 0.40 What is the probability that the market research report will be favorable? If required, round your answer to three decimal places.
A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
10th Edition
ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
Publisher:Sheldon Ross
Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...
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The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars):
| State of Nature | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Low Demand | Medium Demand | High Demand | |
| Decision Alternative | s1 | s2 | s3 |
| Manufacture, d1 | -20 | 40 | 100 |
| Purchase, d2 | 10 | 45 | 70 |
The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.35, P(s2) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30.
- Use a decision tree to recommend a decision.
Recommended decision: - Use EVPI to determine whether Gorman should attempt to obtain a better estimate of demand.
EVPI: $ - A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expected to report either a favorable (F) or unfavorable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are as follows:
P(F | s1) = 0.10 P(U | s1) = 0.90 P(F | s2) = 0.40 P(U | s2) = 0.60 P(F | s3) = 0.60 P(U | s3) = 0.40
What is the probability that the market research report will be favorable? If required, round your answer to three decimal places.
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