Statistical Techniques in Business and Economics
Statistical Techniques in Business and Economics
18th Edition
ISBN: 9781260579611
Author: Douglas Lind; William Marchal; Samuel Wathen
Publisher: MCGRAW-HILL HIGHER EDUCATION
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Chapter 18, Problem 30CE

a.

To determine

To draw: The graph of the given time series data. Also, draw conclusion from it.

b.

To determine

To calculate: All possible forecasts using a smoothing coefficient α of 0.3 .

c.

To determine

To calculate: All possible forecasts using a smoothing coefficient α of 0.7 .

d.

To determine

To calculate: The MAD for forecasts using a smoothing coefficient α of 0.4 and a smoothing coefficient α of 0.9 .

e.

To determine

To find: The forecast model that should be chosen.

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Consider the following time series data.
For the Hawkins Company, the monthly percentages of all shipments received on time over the past 12 months are 80, 82, 84, 83, 83, 84, 85, 84, 82, 83, 84, and 83.   a. Compute for a 3 month moving average forecast. b. Compute for the exponential smoothing forecast for a=0.2. c. Which provides the better forecast using MSE as the measure of model accuracy? d. What is the forecast for next month?
Find the MSE in part (b) please.
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