Statistical Techniques in Business and Economics
18th Edition
ISBN: 9781260579611
Author: Douglas Lind; William Marchal; Samuel Wathen
Publisher: MCGRAW-HILL HIGHER EDUCATION
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Chapter 17, Problem 53CE
To determine
Find the index of economic activity for each of the 3 months using January as the base period.
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United Dairies, Inc., supplies milk to several independent grocers throughout Dade County, Florida. Managers at United Dairies want to develop a forecast of the number of half-gallons of milk sold per week. Sales data for the past 12 weeks follow and have been transferred in the data file UDFMilk.xlsx download(also posted under week 11 module).
Week
Sales
Week
Sales
1
2750
7
3300
2
3100
8
3100
3
3250
9
2950
4
2800
10
3000
5
2900
11
3200
6
3050
12
3150
By Thursday, April 15 (11:55pm PST), answer the following 2 questions and attach a word doc or excel file to show your work.
Use the data in the file UDFMilk.xlsx downloadto construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?
Use exponential smoothing with to develop a forecast of demand for week 13.
Is it possible to predict the annual number of business bankruptcies by the number of
firm births (business starts) in the United States? The following data published by the
U.S. Small Business Administration, Office of Advocacy, are pairs of the number of
business bankruptcies (1,000s) and the number of firm births (10,000s) for a six-year
period.
Business Bankruptcies
(1,000)
34.3
Firm Births
(10,000)
58.1
35.0
55.4
38.5
57.0
40.1
58.5
35.5
57.4
37.9
58.0
i) Based on the output given, use these data to develop the equation of the
regression model to predict the number of business bankruptcies by the
number of firm births.
ii) Explain the values of r and r.
iii) Predict the number of business bankruptcies if the number of firm births is
54.0 (10,000s).
iv) Do the data support the existence of a linear relationship between the number
of firm births and the number of business bankruptcies? Test using a = 0.05.
OUTPUT
Model Summary
Std. Error of the
Estimate
Adusted R
Model
R
R Square…
The index of leading economic indicators, compiled and published by the U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research, is composed of 12 time series, such as the average work hours of production in manufacturing, manufacturers’ new orders, and money supply. This index and similar indexes are designed to move up or down before the economy begins to move the same way. Thus, an economist has statistical evidence to forecast future trends.You want to construct a leading indicator for Erie County in upstate New York. The index is to be based on 2000 data. Because of the time and work involved, you decide to use only four time series. As an experiment, you select these four series: unemployment in the county, a composite index of county stock prices, the County Price Index, and retail sales. Here are the figures for 2000 and 2018.
The weights you assign are unemployment rate 20%, stock prices 40%, County Price Index 25%, and retail sales 15%. (Round your answers to 1 decimal place.)
a. Using…
Chapter 17 Solutions
Statistical Techniques in Business and Economics
Ch. 17 - Prob. 1.1SRCh. 17 - Prob. 1.2SRCh. 17 - Prob. 1ECh. 17 - Prob. 2ECh. 17 - Prob. 3ECh. 17 - Prob. 4ECh. 17 - Prob. 2SRCh. 17 - Prob. 5ECh. 17 - Prob. 6ECh. 17 - Prob. 7E
Ch. 17 - Prob. 8ECh. 17 - Prob. 3SRCh. 17 - Prob. 9ECh. 17 - Prob. 10ECh. 17 - Prob. 4SRCh. 17 - Prob. 11ECh. 17 - Prob. 5SRCh. 17 - Prob. 6SRCh. 17 - Prob. 7SRCh. 17 - Prob. 13ECh. 17 - Prob. 14ECh. 17 - Prob. 15ECh. 17 - Prob. 16ECh. 17 - Prob. 17CECh. 17 - Prob. 18CECh. 17 - Prob. 19CECh. 17 - Prob. 20CECh. 17 - Prob. 21CECh. 17 - Prob. 22CECh. 17 - Prob. 23CECh. 17 - Prob. 24CECh. 17 - Prob. 25CECh. 17 - Prob. 26CECh. 17 - Prob. 27CECh. 17 - Prob. 28CECh. 17 - Prob. 29CECh. 17 - Prob. 30CECh. 17 - Prob. 31CECh. 17 - Prob. 32CECh. 17 - Prob. 33CECh. 17 - Prob. 34CECh. 17 - Prob. 35CECh. 17 - Prob. 36CECh. 17 - Prob. 37CECh. 17 - Prob. 38CECh. 17 - Prob. 39CECh. 17 - Prob. 40CECh. 17 - Prob. 41CECh. 17 - Prob. 42CECh. 17 - Prob. 43CECh. 17 - Prob. 44CECh. 17 - Prob. 45CECh. 17 - Prob. 46CECh. 17 - Prob. 47CECh. 17 - Prob. 48CECh. 17 - Prob. 49CECh. 17 - Prob. 50CECh. 17 - Prob. 51CECh. 17 - Prob. 52CECh. 17 - Prob. 53CECh. 17 - Prob. 54CECh. 17 - Prob. 55CE
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