Intro Stats, Books a la Carte Edition (5th Edition)
5th Edition
ISBN: 9780134210285
Author: Richard D. De Veaux, Paul Velleman, David E. Bock
Publisher: PEARSON
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Chapter 16, Problem 16E
To determine
Explain the decision based on the
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3. Bayesian Inference – Updating Beliefs
A medical test for a rare disease has the following characteristics:
Sensitivity (true positive rate): 99%
Specificity (true negative rate): 98%
The disease occurs in 0.5% of the population.
A patient receives a positive test result.
Questions:
a) Define the relevant events and use Bayes’ Theorem to compute the probability that the patient actually has the disease.b) Explain why the result might seem counterintuitive, despite the high sensitivity and specificity.c) Discuss how prior probabilities influence posterior beliefs in Bayesian inference.d) Suppose a second, independent test with the same accuracy is conducted and is also positive. Update the probability that the patient has the disease.
Chapter 16 Solutions
Intro Stats, Books a la Carte Edition (5th Edition)
Ch. 16.2 - An experiment to test the fairness of a roulette...Ch. 16.2 - Prob. 2JCCh. 16.2 - Prob. 3JCCh. 16.3 - Prob. 4JCCh. 16.3 - Prob. 5JCCh. 16.3 - Prob. 6JCCh. 16.3 - Prob. 7JCCh. 16.4 - Remember the bank thats sending out DVDs to try to...Ch. 16.4 - Prob. 9JCCh. 16.4 - For the bank, which situation has higher power: a...
Ch. 16 - True or false Which of the following are true? If...Ch. 16 - False or true Which of the following are true? If...Ch. 16 - P-values Which of the following are true? If...Ch. 16 - Prob. 4ECh. 16 - Prob. 5ECh. 16 - Prob. 6ECh. 16 - Prob. 7ECh. 16 - More critical values For each of the following...Ch. 16 - Prob. 9ECh. 16 - Significant again? A new reading program may...Ch. 16 - SECTION 16.4 11. Errors For each of the following...Ch. 16 - More errors For each of the following situations,...Ch. 16 - CHAPTER EXERCISES 13. P-value A medical researcher...Ch. 16 - Prob. 14ECh. 16 - Alpha A researcher developing scanners to search...Ch. 16 - Prob. 16ECh. 16 - Prob. 17ECh. 16 - Is the Euro fair? Soon after the Euro was...Ch. 16 - Prob. 19ECh. 16 - Prob. 20ECh. 16 - Prob. 21ECh. 16 - Prob. 22ECh. 16 - Prob. 23ECh. 16 - Prob. 24ECh. 16 - Prob. 25ECh. 16 - Prob. 26ECh. 16 - Prob. 27ECh. 16 - Alzheimers Testing for Alzheimers disease can be a...Ch. 16 - Prob. 29ECh. 16 - Quality control Production managers on an assembly...Ch. 16 - Cars, again As in Exercise 29, state regulators...Ch. 16 - Prob. 32ECh. 16 - Equal opportunity? A company is sued for job...Ch. 16 - Stop signs Highway safety engineers test new road...Ch. 16 - Prob. 35ECh. 16 - Ads A company is willing to renew its advertising...Ch. 16 - Prob. 37ECh. 16 - Prob. 38ECh. 16 - Prob. 39ECh. 16 - Catheters During an angiogram, heart problems can...Ch. 16 - Prob. 41ECh. 16 - Prob. 42ECh. 16 - Prob. 43ECh. 16 - Faulty or not? You are in charge of shipping...Ch. 16 - Prob. 45ECh. 16 - Prob. 46ECh. 16 - Prob. 47ECh. 16 - Prob. 48E
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