Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN: 9781337406659
Author: WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher: Cengage,
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Chapter 14.2, Problem 3P
Summary Introduction
To determine: The use of logistic regression in discriminating between those who are admitted to the MBA program and those who are not based on the variables.
Introduction: Simulation model is the digital prototype of the physical model that helps to
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Suppose that you work at a local food
manufacturer and are given the task of
investigating your company's seasonal sales
patterns over the past 10 years (2011 to
2020). After adjusting your sales values for
inflation, you calculate the following
seasonal sales averages (in millions):
Spring: 39
Summer: 46
Fall: 32
Winter: 23
Use this information to seasonally adjust
your 2021 Winter sales total of 29 million.
Round your answer to two decimal points
and omit any units (1.23 NOT $1.23 million).
A television network earns an average of $25 million each season from a hit program and loses an average of $8 million each season on a program that turns out to be a flop. Of all programs picked up by this network in recent years, 25% turn out to be hits and 75% turn out to be flops. At a cost of C dollars, a market research firm will analyze a pilot episode of a prospec- tive program and issue a report predicting whether the given programwill end up being a hit. If the program is actually going to be a hit, there is a 75% chance that the market researchers will predict the program to be a hit. If the program is actually going to be a flop, there is only a 30% chance that the market researchers will predict the program to be a hit.a. What is the maximum value of C that the network should be willing to pay the market research firm?b. Calculate and interpret EVPI for this decision problem.
A GMAC MBA new-matriculants survey provided the following data for 2018 students.
Excel File: data04-53.xlsx
Applied to More
Than One School
Yes
No
23 and under
207
201
24-26
299
379
Age
Group
27-30
185
268
31-35
66
193
36 and over
51
169
a. Given that a person applied to more than one school, what is the probability that the person is 24 - 26 years old (to 2 decimals)?
b. Given that a person is in the 36 and over age group, what is the probability that the person applied to more than one school (to 4 decimals)?
c. What is the probability that a person is 24 - 26 years old or applied to more than one school (to 4 decimals)?
d. Suppose a person is known to have applied to only one school. What is the probability that the person is 31 or more years old (to 4 decimals)?
e. Is the number of schools applied to independent of age? Explain.
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