PRACTICAL MGT. SCIENCE (LL)-W/MINDTAP
6th Edition
ISBN: 9781337610278
Author: WINSTON
Publisher: CENGAGE L
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Chapter 13.7, Problem 27P
The file P13_27.xlsx contains yearly data on the proportion of Americans under the age of 18 living below the poverty level.
- a. Create a time series chart of the data. Based on what you see, which of the exponential smoothing models do you think will provide the best
forecasting model? Why? - b. Use simple exponential smoothing to forecast these data, using a smoothing constant of 0.1.
- c. Repeat part b, but search for the smoothing constant that makes RMSE as small as possible. Create a chart of the series with the forecasts superimposed from this optimal smoothing constant. Does it make much of an improvement over the model in part b?
- d. Write a short report to summarize your results. Considering the chart in part c, would you say the forecasts are “good”?
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1) View the video Service Processing at BuyCostumes (10.41 minutes, Ctrl+Click on the link); what are your key takeaways (tie to one or more of the topics discussed in Chapter 3) after watching this video. (viddler.com/embed/a6b7054c)
Note: As a rough guideline, please try to keep the written submission to one or two paragraphs.
2) Orkhon Foods makes hand-held pies (among other products). The firm’s weekly sales of hand-held pies over the past seven weeks are given in the table. The firm’s operations manager, Amarjargal, wants to forecast sales for week 8.
Weeks
Sales of hand-held pies(000s)
1
19
2
18
3
17
4
20
5
18
6
22
7
20
Forecast the week 8 sales using the following approaches:
a) Naïve approach
b) 5-month moving average
c) 3-month weighted moving average using the following weights: 0.50 for week 7, 0.30 for week 6, and 0.20 for week 5.
d) Exponential smoothing using a smoothing constant of 0.30, assume a…
Answer all parts to question 4 and show all working
Chapter 13 Solutions
PRACTICAL MGT. SCIENCE (LL)-W/MINDTAP
Ch. 13.3 - The file P13_01.xlsx contains the monthly number...Ch. 13.3 - The file P13_02.xlsx contains five years of...Ch. 13.3 - The file P13_03.xlsx contains monthly data on...Ch. 13.3 - The file P13_04.xlsx lists the monthly sales for a...Ch. 13.3 - Management of a home appliance store wants to...Ch. 13.3 - Do the sales prices of houses in a given community...Ch. 13.3 - Prob. 7PCh. 13.3 - The management of a technology company is trying...Ch. 13.3 - Prob. 9PCh. 13.3 - Sometimes curvature in a scatterplot can be fit...
Ch. 13.4 - Prob. 12PCh. 13.4 - A trucking company wants to predict the yearly...Ch. 13.4 - An antique collector believes that the price...Ch. 13.4 - Stock market analysts are continually looking for...Ch. 13.4 - Suppose that a regional express delivery service...Ch. 13.4 - The owner of a restaurant in Bloomington, Indiana,...Ch. 13.6 - The file P13_19.xlsx contains the weekly sales of...Ch. 13.6 - The file P13_20.xlsx contains the monthly sales of...Ch. 13.6 - The file P13_21.xlsx contains the weekly sales of...Ch. 13.6 - The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S....Ch. 13.7 - You have been assigned to forecast the number of...Ch. 13.7 - Simple exponential smoothing with = 0.3 is being...Ch. 13.7 - The file P13_25.xlsx contains the quarterly...Ch. 13.7 - The file P13_26.xlsx contains the monthly number...Ch. 13.7 - The file P13_27.xlsx contains yearly data on the...Ch. 13.7 - The file P13_28.xlsx contains monthly retail sales...Ch. 13.7 - The file P13_29.xlsx contains monthly time series...Ch. 13.7 - A version of simple exponential smoothing can be...Ch. 13 - Prob. 31PCh. 13 - Prob. 32PCh. 13 - Management of a home appliance store would like to...Ch. 13 - A small computer chip manufacturer wants to...Ch. 13 - The file P13_35.xlsx contains the amount of money...Ch. 13 - Prob. 36PCh. 13 - Prob. 37PCh. 13 - Prob. 39PCh. 13 - The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to...Ch. 13 - Prob. 41PCh. 13 - The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on...Ch. 13 - Prob. 43PCh. 13 - Prob. 44PCh. 13 - Prob. 45PCh. 13 - Prob. 46PCh. 13 - Prob. 49P
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