(a)
The expected present worth for the expansion cost.
Answer to Problem 26P
The expected present worth for the expansion cost is
Explanation of Solution
Given:
If optimistic growth is used in a city, then expansion will be needed in
If most likely growth is used, then expansion will be needed in 8 years.
If pessimistic growth is used, then expansion will be needed in 15 years and its probability is 40%.
Interest rate is
Expansion cost is
Concept used:
The total probability is
Write the expression for the present worth factor.
Here, interest rate is
Calculation:
Calculate the present worth for optimistic scenario
Here, expansion cost is
Substitute,
Calculate the present worth for most likely
Here, probability for most likely is
Substitute,
Calculate the present worth for pessimistic
Here, probability for pessimistic is
Substitute,
The present worth for the expansion cost is sum of present worth of optimistic, most likely and pessimistic, multiplied with their probabilities.
Calculate the present worth for the expansion cost
Substitute
Conclusion:
Thus, the present worth for the expansion cost is
(b)
The number of years until expansion.
Answer to Problem 26P
The expected number of years until expansion is
Explanation of Solution
Concept used:
Expected number of years is the sum of product of number of years and their probabilities in optimistic, most likely and pessimistic growth.
Calculation:
Expected number of years until expansion is given by
Calculate the expected number of years until expansion
Here number of years is
Substitute,
Conclusion:
Thus, the expected number of years until expansion is
(c)
The present worth of the expansion cost using expected number of years.
Answer to Problem 26P
The present worth of the expansion cost using expected number of years is
Explanation of Solution
Concept used:
The present worth calculation of expansion cost using expected number of years is a product of expansion cost and present worth factor using expected number of years.
Calculation:
The present worth of the expansion cost using expected number of years is given by
Calculate present worth of the expansion cost using expected number of years.
Here,
Substitute,
Conclusion:
The present worth of the expansion cost using expected number of years is
(d)
If the answers in part (
Answer to Problem 26P
Answer in part (
Explanation of Solution
The answer in part
The answer in part
This is because in part
Conclusion:
Answer in part (
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Chapter 10 Solutions
ENGINEERING ECO ANALYSIS W/STUDY GUIDE
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