Chapter 10, Problem 25E

Another mistaken poll Prior to the mayoral election discussed in Exercise 24, the newspaper also conducted a poll. The paper surveyed a random sample of registered voters stratified by political party, age, sex, and area of residence. This poll predicted that Amabo would win the election with 52% of the vote. The newspaper was wrong: Amabo lost, getting only 46% of the vote. Do you think the newspaper’s faulty prediction is more likely to be a result of bias or sampling error? Explain.