) You believe that the VIX trades in regimes where its average level is significantly different. You define four regimes from 2004 through 2021: June 2008 through October 2011 (financial crisis); February
) You believe that the VIX trades in regimes where its average level is significantly different. You define four regimes from 2004 through 2021: June 2008 through October 2011 (financial crisis); February
A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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- ) You believe that the VIX trades in regimes where its average level is significantly different. You define four regimes from 2004 through 2021: June 2008 through October 2011 (financial crisis); February 2020 through March 2021 (the COVID-19 crisis); the 12-month transition periods before and after the financial crisis and the current transition period after the COVID-19 crisis; and the remaining periods of low volatility. In order to test your hypothesis, you examine month-end values of the VIX from January 2004 through October 2021 (214 observations) and conduct the following regression:
Dependent variable Y: Month-end value of VIX
Dummy variable X1: Financial Crisis: 1 if between June 2008 through Oct 2011, 0 if not
Dummy variable X2: COVID-19 crisis: 1 if between Feb 2020 through March 2021, 0 if not
Dummy variable X2: Transition period: 1 if in 12 months before or after the financial crisis or the current period since the COVID-19 crisis
(June 2007 – May 2008, Nov 2011 – Oct 2012, or April 2021 – Oct 2021)
The results for the regression are as follows
|
Coefficients |
Standard Error |
Intercept |
14.63 |
0.5226 |
financial crisis |
13.71 |
1.0610 |
COVID-19 crisis |
15.71 |
1.6643 |
transition |
5.40 |
1.1835 |
- How would the introduction of Dummy variable X4: Low volatility period (Jan 2004 – May 2007, or Nov 2012 – Jan 2020) affect the output of this regression? Why?
- Which of the coefficients are significant at the 0.01 level?
- According to the regression result, what was the average value of the VIX during the COVID-19 Crisis?
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