) You believe that the VIX trades in regimes where its average level is significantly different. You define four regimes from 2004 through 2021: June 2008 through October 2011 (financial crisis); February

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  1. ) You believe that the VIX trades in regimes where its average level is significantly different. You define four regimes from 2004 through 2021: June 2008 through October 2011 (financial crisis); February 2020 through March 2021 (the COVID-19 crisis); the 12-month transition periods before and after the financial crisis and the current transition period after the COVID-19 crisis; and the remaining periods of low volatility. In order to test your hypothesis, you examine month-end values of the VIX from January 2004 through October 2021 (214 observations) and conduct the following regression:

    Dependent variable Y:            Month-end value of VIX
    Dummy variable X1:                                Financial Crisis:  1 if between June 2008 through Oct 2011, 0 if not
    Dummy variable X2:                                COVID-19 crisis:  1 if between Feb 2020 through March 2021, 0 if not
    Dummy variable X2:                                Transition period: 1 if in 12 months before or after the financial crisis or                                                         the current period since the COVID-19 crisis
                                                            (June 2007 – May 2008,  Nov 2011 – Oct 2012, or April 2021 – Oct 2021)

    The results for the regression are as follows

 

Coefficients

Standard Error

Intercept

14.63

0.5226

financial crisis

13.71

1.0610

COVID-19 crisis

15.71

1.6643

transition

5.40

1.1835

 

  1. How would the introduction of Dummy variable X4: Low volatility period (Jan 2004 – May 2007, or Nov 2012 – Jan 2020) affect the output of this regression? Why?
  2. Which of the coefficients are significant at the 0.01 level?
  3. According to the regression result, what was the average value of the VIX during the COVID-19 Crisis?

 

 

 

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