You are eliciting an expert about the frequency of waves over 3 feet high in the coming year. Most years, approximately 100 waves over 3 feet occur, but you are aware this value may change in the coming year because of environmental factors. Which of the following statements is true? NOTE - Gambler's fallacy and regression to the mean are biases that result from the representative heuristic which you may encounter when using expert judgment. In summary, Gambler's fallacy is the belief that is something happens more (less) frequently in past, then it will happen less (more) frequently in future. Regression to the mean is the phenomenon that if the frequency is extremely high or low in past then it will tend to be closer to average in future. Select one: O a. Last year 200 waves over 3 feet high occurred. The expert may underestimate the frequency of waves over 3 feet high in the coming year because of gamblers fallacy. The expert may underestimate the frequency of waves over 3 feet high in the coming year because of ignoring regression to the mean. Ob. Last year 200 waves over 3 feet high occurred. The expert may underestimate the frequency of waves over 3 feet high in the coming year because of regression to the mean. The expert may overestimate the frequency of waves over 3 feet high in the coming year because of gamblers fallacy. ○ c. Last year 30 waves over 3 feet high occurred. The expert may overestimate the frequency of waves over 3 feet high in the coming year because of gamblers fallacy. The expert may underestimate the frequency of waves over 3 feet high in the coming year because of ignoring regression to the mean. O d. Last year 30 waves over 3 feet high occurred. The expert may underestimate the frequency of waves over 3 feet high in the coming year because of gamblers fallacy. The expert may overestimate the frequency of waves over 3 feet high in the coming year because of ignoring regression to the mean.
You are eliciting an expert about the frequency of waves over 3 feet high in the coming year. Most years, approximately 100 waves over 3 feet occur, but you are aware this value may change in the coming year because of environmental factors. Which of the following statements is true? NOTE - Gambler's fallacy and regression to the mean are biases that result from the representative heuristic which you may encounter when using expert judgment. In summary, Gambler's fallacy is the belief that is something happens more (less) frequently in past, then it will happen less (more) frequently in future. Regression to the mean is the phenomenon that if the frequency is extremely high or low in past then it will tend to be closer to average in future. Select one: O a. Last year 200 waves over 3 feet high occurred. The expert may underestimate the frequency of waves over 3 feet high in the coming year because of gamblers fallacy. The expert may underestimate the frequency of waves over 3 feet high in the coming year because of ignoring regression to the mean. Ob. Last year 200 waves over 3 feet high occurred. The expert may underestimate the frequency of waves over 3 feet high in the coming year because of regression to the mean. The expert may overestimate the frequency of waves over 3 feet high in the coming year because of gamblers fallacy. ○ c. Last year 30 waves over 3 feet high occurred. The expert may overestimate the frequency of waves over 3 feet high in the coming year because of gamblers fallacy. The expert may underestimate the frequency of waves over 3 feet high in the coming year because of ignoring regression to the mean. O d. Last year 30 waves over 3 feet high occurred. The expert may underestimate the frequency of waves over 3 feet high in the coming year because of gamblers fallacy. The expert may overestimate the frequency of waves over 3 feet high in the coming year because of ignoring regression to the mean.
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Transcribed Image Text:You are eliciting an expert about the frequency of waves over 3 feet high in the coming year. Most years, approximately 100 waves over 3 feet occur, but you are aware this
value may change in the coming year because of environmental factors. Which of the following statements is true?
NOTE - Gambler's fallacy and regression to the mean are biases that result from the representative heuristic which you may encounter when using expert judgment. In
summary, Gambler's fallacy is the belief that is something happens more (less) frequently in past, then it will happen less (more) frequently in future. Regression to the mean
is the phenomenon that if the frequency is extremely high or low in past then it will tend to be closer to average in future.
Select one:
O a. Last year 200 waves over 3 feet high occurred. The expert may underestimate the frequency of waves over 3 feet high in the coming year because of gamblers fallacy.
The expert may underestimate the frequency of waves over 3 feet high in the coming year because of ignoring regression to the mean.
Ob. Last year 200 waves over 3 feet high occurred. The expert may underestimate the frequency of waves over 3 feet high in the coming year because of regression to the
mean. The expert may overestimate the frequency of waves over 3 feet high in the coming year because of gamblers fallacy.
○ c.
Last year 30 waves over 3 feet high occurred. The expert may overestimate the frequency of waves over 3 feet high in the coming year because of gamblers fallacy.
The expert may underestimate the frequency of waves over 3 feet high in the coming year because of ignoring regression to the mean.
O d. Last year 30 waves over 3 feet high occurred. The expert may underestimate the frequency of waves over 3 feet high in the coming year because of gamblers fallacy.
The expert may overestimate the frequency of waves over 3 feet high in the coming year because of ignoring regression to the mean.
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