Wire manufactured by a company is tested for strength. The test gives a correct positive result with a probability of 0.85 when the wire is strong, but gives an incorrect positive result (false positive) with a probability of 0.04 when in fact the wire is not strong. If 98% of the wires are strong, and a wire chosen at random fails the test, what is the probability it really is not strong enough? * Please solve using Bayes' Theorem and explain completely. Thanks.

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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Hello. Please answer the attached Probability question correctly by using Bayes' Theorem. The correct answer is 11.5%, however, I do not know how this answer is obtained if you can show me, I will give a thumbs up. Thank you.


Wire manufactured by a company is tested for strength.
The test gives a correct positive result with a probability of 0.85 when the wire is strong, but
gives an incorrect positive result (false positive) with a probability of 0.04 when in fact the wire is
not strong.
If 98% of the wires are strong, and a wire chosen at random fails the test, what is the probability it
really is not strong enough?
* Please solve using Bayes' Theorem and explain completely. Thanks.
Transcribed Image Text:Wire manufactured by a company is tested for strength. The test gives a correct positive result with a probability of 0.85 when the wire is strong, but gives an incorrect positive result (false positive) with a probability of 0.04 when in fact the wire is not strong. If 98% of the wires are strong, and a wire chosen at random fails the test, what is the probability it really is not strong enough? * Please solve using Bayes' Theorem and explain completely. Thanks.
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