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What is the calculation of the probability that this person actually has colorectal cancer given a positive test ?(Calculate the probability)

What is the calculation of the probability that this person actually has colorectal cancer given a positive test ?(Calculate the probability)

MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications
MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications
6th Edition
ISBN:9781119256830
Author:Amos Gilat
Publisher:Amos Gilat
Chapter1: Starting With Matlab
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1P
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What is the calculation of the probability that this person actually has colorectal cancer given a positive test ?(Calculate the probability)
There is a growing recognition among medical professionals that cancer screening is a double-edged sword. While some individuals may benefit from early detection, others may be falsely diagnosed and treated for cancer unnecessarily. To make good decisions about screening, the public needs to know its potential benefits and harms. The following two paragraphs are taken from a study to test physicians’ ability to interpret clinical laboratory results. To diagnose colorectal cancer, the hemoccult test is conducted to detect occult blood in the stool. For symptom-free people over 50 years old who participate in screening using the hemoccult test, the following information is available. The probability that one of these people has colorectal cancer is 0.3 percent. If a person has colorectal cancer, the probability is 50 percent that he will have a positive hemoccult test. If a person does not have colorectal cancer, the probability is 3 percent that he will still have a positive hemoccult test. Imagine a person (over age 50, no symptoms) who has a positive hemoccult test in your screening. What is the probability that this person actually has colorectal cancer?
Transcribed Image Text:There is a growing recognition among medical professionals that cancer screening is a double-edged sword. While some individuals may benefit from early detection, others may be falsely diagnosed and treated for cancer unnecessarily. To make good decisions about screening, the public needs to know its potential benefits and harms. The following two paragraphs are taken from a study to test physicians’ ability to interpret clinical laboratory results. To diagnose colorectal cancer, the hemoccult test is conducted to detect occult blood in the stool. For symptom-free people over 50 years old who participate in screening using the hemoccult test, the following information is available. The probability that one of these people has colorectal cancer is 0.3 percent. If a person has colorectal cancer, the probability is 50 percent that he will have a positive hemoccult test. If a person does not have colorectal cancer, the probability is 3 percent that he will still have a positive hemoccult test. Imagine a person (over age 50, no symptoms) who has a positive hemoccult test in your screening. What is the probability that this person actually has colorectal cancer?
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