What effect on the optimal solution (value of Z) ,if we change the profit of X3 from 6 to $3.8 ?
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- Harley, an ice-cream vendor, purchases each pint of ice-cream for $7 and sells for $20 each. At the end of the week, the unsold ice-cream can be salvaged for $2 each. From past experience, Harley has estimated the sales probabilities as below. What is the optimal number of pints Harley should purchase? Number of Ice-creams Sold, Probability 1 = 0.05, 2 = 0.1, 3 = 0.2 , 4 = 0.25, 5 = 0.15, 6 = 0.1, 7 = 0.08, 8 = 0.07A farmer is trying to decide if continuing to farm is the correct thing to do. Yields on his fields have been declining over the past several seasons. He has an offer on the table from a corporate farmer to lease his land for the season for $15,000. Whether or not he accepts this offer depends on how well his fields will produce and the market value of his crops. If yield is high, the farmer will make $50,000 and there is a 10% possibility of this occurring. If yield is medium, the farmer will make $20,000 and there is a 50% possibility of this occurring. If yield is low, the farmer will make $12,000 and there is a 40% possibility of this occurring. Draw a decision tree for this problem. What should the farmer do according to the decision tree? If the farmer could get more information that would help him predict his yield, what is the maximum amount that he should pay for this information?The local high school soccer club need to borrow to finance a new soccer field. Repayment of the loan involves payments of $10 000.00 at the end of every 3 months for 8 years. No payments are to be made during the development period of 5 years. If interest is 8% compounded quarterly, how much did the Achievers borrow? a) $162 064.83 b) $234 683.35 c) $157 935.17 d) $175.935.71 e) $320 000.00 .
- Haya International are considering a project that is susceptible to risk. An initial investment of OMR90,000 will be followed by four years each with the following ‘most likely’ cash flows (there is no inflation or tax): OMR OMR Annual Sales 400,000 (volume of 100,000 units multiplied by estimated sales price of OMR 4) Annual Costs Labour 200,000 Materials 40,000 Other 10,000 250,000 (250,000) 150,000 The initial investment consists of OMR80,000 in machines, which have a zero scrap value at the end of the four-year life of the project and OMR10,000 in additional working capital which is recoverable at the end. The discount rate is 10 per cent. Required : Calculate the NPV and show the sensitivity of NPV to changes in the following: Increase in sales price by 10%; Decrease in discount rate by 10%JayZee Electronics wanted to expand its operations by considering of putting up another warehouse to store their electronic supplies from different suppliers. The table below shows the payoff for all alternatives available for JayZee Electronics in all 3 states of nature. The probabilities for every state of nature is also provided. Size of the Warehouse Good Market ($) Fair Market ($) Poor Market ($) Small 40,000 -10,000 -20,000 18,000 Medium 80,000 90,000 Large Very Large -40,000 -160,000 100,000 175,000 350,000 25,000 Probabilities 0.35 0.45 0.20 Using Decision Making under Uncertainty (Use Sheet 1 and rename it to Lastname_Uncertainty) (a) Develop a decision table for this decision. (b) What is the maximax decision? (c) What is the maximin decision? (d) What is the equally likely decision? (e) What is the criterion of realism decision? Use an a value of 0.8. (f) Develop an opportunity loss table. (g) What is the minimax regret decision? Using Decision Making under Risk (Use Sheet 1…Chris Suit is administrator for Lowell Hospital. She is trying to determine whether to build a large wing on the existing hospital, a small wing, or no wing at all. If the population of Lowell continues to grow, a large wing could return $150,000 to the hospital each year. If a small wing were built, it would return $100,000 to the hospital each year if the population continues to grow. If the population of Lowell remains the same, the hospital would encounter a loss of $85,000 with a large wing and a loss of $45,000 with a small wing. Unfortunately, Suit does not have any information about the future population of Lowell. a. Assuming that each state of nature has the same likelihood, determine the best alternative. [Select ] what is the EMV? [Select] b. If the likelihood of growth is .4 and that of remaining the same is .6 and the decision criterion is expected monetary value, which decision should Suit make? [Select] what is the EMV? [Select]
- Suppose the purchase price is $1.6 billion. Consider the following scenario: the realisation of value from Charlotte Mill is uncertain. Assume that with probability you can realise the estimated value. And that with probability it is not possible to realise any value. If you could hire an expert consultant to learn for certain whether the value from the acquisition can be realised, what is the maximum fee that you would be willing to pay the consultant for this service?Cheryl Druehl Retailers, Inc., must decide whether to build a small or a large facility at a new location in Fairfax. Demand at the location will either be low or high, with probabilities 0.3 and 0.7, respectively. If Cheryl builds a small facility and demand proves to be high, she then has the option of expanding the facility. If a small facility is built and demand proves to be high, and then the retailer expands the facility, the payoff is $240,000. If a small facility is built and demand proves to be high, but Cheryl then decides not to expand the facility, the payoff is $213,000. If a small facility is built and demand proves to be low, then there is no option to expand and the payoff is $230,000. If a large facility is built and demand proves to be low, Cheryl then has the option of stimulating demand through local advertising. If she does not exercise this option, then the payoff is $60,000. If she does exercise the advertising option, then the response to advertising will…A manufacturing firm is looking to invest in new equipment. Options A and B have a known initial cost and a known savings each year of the analysis period as shown in the table below. Option C has a known initial cost, but an unknown uniform annual savings. Using an MARR of 5%, determine the required uniform annual savings for Option 3, if Option 3 is to be the best option. Express your answer in $ to the nearest $10. Option B -10000 -15000 - 20000 1 2700 3500 ? 2700 3500 2700 3500 2700 3500 2700 3500
- A new electric power generation plant is expected to cost $42,000,000 to complete. The revenues generated by the new plant are expected to be $3,875,000 per year, while operational expenses are estimated to be $2,000,000 per year. The plant will last 40 years, and the electric authority uses a 3% interest rate. Determine if the plant will be able to recover its investment using the following methods: a. IRR (show your solution for interpolation; use 5 decimal places for the interpolation procedure) b. Payback periodCachora Dynamics Corp (CDC) has designed a new integrated circuit that will allow it to enter, if it wishes, the microcomputer field. Otherwise, it can sell its rights for $15 million. If it chooses to build computers, the profitability of this project depends on the company's ability to market them during the first year. Two levels of sales are foreseen as two possible outcomes: selling 10,000 computers in case of low demand, but if it is successful it can sell up to 100,000 units (high demand). The cost of installing the production line is $6 million. The difference between the selling price and the variable cost of each computer is $600. a) Develop a formulation for decision analysis and use the non-probabilistic decision rules: Maximin and Minimax. b) Assume that the probability of high demand (p) is 50% and for low demand (1 - p) is 50%, apply the probabilistic criteria: Maximum expected value, Minimum loss of opportunity. c) Determine the VEIP. d) Carry out a sensitivity…Calculating outcomes as equally likely would BEST describe: O a. Maximax criterion O b. Laplace criterion O c. Regret criterion Od. Maximin criterion Determining the average payoff for each alternative and choosing the one with the BEST payoff is the approach called: ea, maximax O b. minimax regret O c. laplace Od maximin 2