Westward Magazine Publishers are thinking of launching a new fashion magazine for women in the under-25 age group. Their original plans were to launch in April of next year, but information has been received that a rival publisher is planning a similar magazine. Westward now have to decide whether to bring their launch forward to January of next year, though this would cost an additional $500 000. If the launch is brought forward it is estimated that the chances of launching before the rival are about 80%. However, if the launch is not brought forward it is thought that there is only a 30% chance of launching before the rival. For simplicity, the management of Westward have assumed that the circulation of the magazine throughout its life will be either high or low. If Westward launch before the rival, it is thought that there is a 75% chance of a high circulation. However, if the rival launches first, this probability is estimated to be only 50%.

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Draw a decision tree to represent Westward's Problem

Westward Magazine Publishers are thinking of launching a new fashion magazine for women in the
under-25 age group. Their original plans were to launch in April of next year, but information has
been received that a rival publisher is planning a similar magazine. Westward now have to decide
whether to bring their launch forward to January of next year, though this would cost an additional
$500 000. If the launch is brought forward it is estimated that the chances of launching before the
rival are about 80%. However, if the launch is not brought forward it is thought that there is only a
30% chance of launching before the rival.
For simplicity, the management of Westward have assumed that the circulation of the magazine
throughout its life will be either high or low. If Westward launch before the rival, it is thought that
there is a 75% chance of a high circulation. However, if the rival launches first, this probability is
estimated to be only 50%.
If the rival does launch first then Westward could try to boost sales by increasing their level of
advertising. This would cost an extra $200 000, but it is thought that it would increase the probability
of a high circulation to 70%. This increased advertising expenditure would not be considered if
Westward's magazine was launched first. Westward's accountants have estimated that a high
circulation would generate a gross profit over the magazine's lifetime of $4 million. A low circulation
would bring a gross profit of about $1 million. It is important to note, however, that these gross profits
do not take into account additional expenditure caused by bringing the launch forward or by
increased advertising.
Transcribed Image Text:Westward Magazine Publishers are thinking of launching a new fashion magazine for women in the under-25 age group. Their original plans were to launch in April of next year, but information has been received that a rival publisher is planning a similar magazine. Westward now have to decide whether to bring their launch forward to January of next year, though this would cost an additional $500 000. If the launch is brought forward it is estimated that the chances of launching before the rival are about 80%. However, if the launch is not brought forward it is thought that there is only a 30% chance of launching before the rival. For simplicity, the management of Westward have assumed that the circulation of the magazine throughout its life will be either high or low. If Westward launch before the rival, it is thought that there is a 75% chance of a high circulation. However, if the rival launches first, this probability is estimated to be only 50%. If the rival does launch first then Westward could try to boost sales by increasing their level of advertising. This would cost an extra $200 000, but it is thought that it would increase the probability of a high circulation to 70%. This increased advertising expenditure would not be considered if Westward's magazine was launched first. Westward's accountants have estimated that a high circulation would generate a gross profit over the magazine's lifetime of $4 million. A low circulation would bring a gross profit of about $1 million. It is important to note, however, that these gross profits do not take into account additional expenditure caused by bringing the launch forward or by increased advertising.
Expert Solution
Step 1

Given:-

           A new fashion magazine for women in the under 25 age group.

                   Cost of advertising =  $200,000

           Launching cost in January = $500,000

A high circulation would generate  a gross profit over the magazine period = $ 4 million

             A low circulation generates a gross profit = $ 1 million

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