Visitors to your website are asked to answer a single “yes or no” survey question before they get access to the content on the page. Among all of the visitors to this page, there are two categories: Random Clicker (RC) and Truthful Clicker (TC). There are two possible answers to the survey: yes and no. Random clickers would click either one with equal probability. You are also given the information that the overall fraction of random clickers is 0.3. After a trial period, you get the following survey results: 65% said Yes and 35% said No. What is your estimate for P(yes | TC), the probability that someone answers “yes” to the survey question, given that they were a truthful clicker? Hint: use the rule of total probability
Visitors to your website are asked to answer a single “yes or no” survey question before they get access to the content on the page. Among all of the visitors to this page, there are two categories: Random Clicker (RC) and Truthful Clicker (TC). There are two possible answers to the survey: yes and no. Random clickers would click either one with equal probability. You are also given the information that the overall fraction of random clickers is 0.3. After a trial period, you get the following survey results: 65% said Yes and 35% said No. What is your estimate for P(yes | TC), the probability that someone answers “yes” to the survey question, given that they were a truthful clicker? Hint: use the rule of total probability
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