The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years:1234567891011YearDemand8105712811148118This exercise contains only parts b, c, and d.b) Using the 3-year moving average, provide the forecast from periods 4 through 12 (round your responses to one decimal place).456789101112YearForecastc) Using the 3-year weighted moving average with weights 0.10, 0.30, and 0.60, using 0.60 for the most recent period, provide the forecast from periods 4 through(round your responses to two decimal places).56789101112Year4Forecastd) Mean absolute deviation for the forecast developed using the 3-year moving average is 2.14 and for the 3-year weighted moving average is 2.60. Based on thisinformation, the better forecast is achieved using theapproach.

Forecasting is a technique used to predict future outcomes on the basis of past data. In businesses…

Answered: ) Using the 3-year moving average,…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...

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Period 1 2 3 4 5 New Accounts Period 201 215 212 229 236 6 7 8 9 10 New Accounts Period 233 249 253 254 268 11 12 13 14 15 New Accounts 282 276 281 289 311
Following table shows the monthly sales of X-box consoles at a retail store in Kuwait: Answer the following questions based on the data given above. Show your calculations. a. What is the expected sales for the 8th month based on 3 period moving average? b. What is the expected sales for the 8th month based on exponential smoothing with α =0.2? c. Which of the above two forecasting method is better based on MSE?
Given the following original forecast and actual data: Month Actual Forecast Jan 600 Feb 475 Mar 550 Apr 575 May 643 Jun 662 Jul ??? ??? Using a 2 month weighted moving average with weights of 75% for the previous month and 25% for two months back, what is the forecast for July. Round your answer to 1 decimal place. 400 -- —— ——
Marianne Schwartz, the owner of Handy Man Rentals, rents carpet cleaners to contractors and walk-in customers. She is interested in arriving at a forecast of rentals so that she can order the correct quantities of supplies that go with the cleaners. Data for the last 10 weeks are shown here. Part 2 Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Rentals 23 22 25 23 22 11 21 34 19 13 Part 3 a. Prepare a forecast for weeks 6 through 10 by using a 4-week moving average LOADING... . (Enter your responses rounded to two decimal places.) Week Forecast 6 enter your response here Part 4 7 enter your response here Part 5 8 enter your response here Part 6 9 enter your response here Part 7 10 enter your response here Part 8 What is the…
Given the following original forecast and actual data: Month Actual Forecast Jan 600 Feb 475 Mar 550 Apr 575 May 643 Jun 662 Jul ??? ??? Using a 2 month weighted moving average with weights of 75% for the previous month and 25% for two months back, what is the forecast for July. Round your answer to 1 decimal place. 400 -- —— ——
41) A medium-term forecast is considered to cover what length of time? A) 2-4 weeks B) 1 month to 1 year C) 2-4 years D) 5-10 years E) 20 years 42) When is the exponential smoothing model equivalent to the naÃ¯ve forecasting model? A) ? = 0 B) ? = 0.5 C) ? = 1 D) during the first period in which it is used E) never 43) Enrollment in a particular class for the last four semesters has been 120, 126, 110, and 130. Suppose a one-semester moving average was used to forecast enrollment (this is sometimes referred to as a naÃ¯ve forecast). Thus, the forecast for the second semester would be 120, for the third semester it would be 126, and for the last semester it would be 110. What would the MSE be for this situation? A) 196.00 B) 230.67 C) 100.00 D) 42.00 E) None of the above 44) Which of the following methods tells whether the forecast tends to be too high or too low? A) MAD B) MSE C) MAPE D) decomposition E) bias 45) Assume that you have tried three different…
Q3) Discuss Qualitative forecasting technique. Explain the situations where we use Qualitative methods. Discuss Delphi forecasting method and its challenge.
b5 need urgent in 15 minutes
a. Use a 3-month moving average to estimate the month-in-advance forecast of demand for months 4–12 and generate a forecast for the first month of next year. Calculate the average forecast error and mean absolute error. b. Use a 3-month weighted moving average with weights of 0.6, 0.3, 0.1 (most recent to least recent, respectively) to calculate month-in-advance forecasts for months 4–12 and forecast for the first month of next year. Calculate the average forecast error and mean absolute error. c. Compare the average forecast error and MAD for the forecasting methods in parts a and b. Based on these error calculations, which of the two forecast methods would you recommend? Why?
Problem 5 You are trying to determine what forecast method to use. Based upon the following historical data, calculate the following forecast and specify what procedure you would utilize. MAY JUNE MONTH JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL DEMAND 62 65 67 68 71 73 MONTH JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER DEMAND 76 78 78 80 84 85 a. Calculate the simple three-month moving average for periods 4 to 12. b. Calculate the weighted three-month moving average for periods 4 to 12. Use weights of 0.50, 0.30, and 0.20 for the most recent, second most recent, and third most recent periods, respectively. c. Calculate the single exponential smoothing forecast for periods 2 to 12 using an initial forecast (F₁) of 61 and a of 0.30. d. Calculate the exponential smoothing with trend component forecast for periods 2 to 12 using an initial trend forecast (T₁) of 1.8, and initial exponential smoothing forecast (F₁) of 60, an a of 0.30 and ō of 0.30. e. Calculate the MAD for the forecasts made by each…
Forecast based on averages. Given the following data: Period Number of Complaints 1 70 2 75 3 65 4 68 5 74 Prepare a forecast for period 6 using each of these approaches: a. A weighted average using weights of .50 (most recent), .30, .20 b. Exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of .40
*** Can you please demonstrate how to do parts d, e, f? Given: Year Demand 1 7 2 9 3 5 4 9 5 Predict the value for Year 5: 2 year moving average What is MSE for 2 year moving average? 2 year moving average using 0.6 (weight for the oldest period) and 0.4(weight for most recent period Exponential smoothing, =0.2 and forecast for Year 1 = 5 Linear trend Which forecast method has the least amount of error using MAD? What is the coefficient?

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