Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.3 to forecast the demand for fertilizer in year 12. Assume that last period's forecast for year 1 is 5,000 bags to begin the procedure. Bags are shown in 1,000's in table below. Year Demand (Bags) 4 6. 3. 4 10 6. 8. 7. 8. 8. 6. 12 10 14 11 15 O A. 14.00 B. 14.87 O C. 11.79 D. 13.67

Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.3 to forecast the demand for fertilizer in year 12. Assume that last period's forecast for year 1 is 5,000 bags to begin the procedure. Bags are shown in 1,000's in table below. Year Demand (Bags) 4 6. 3. 4 10 6. 8. 7. 8. 8. 6. 12 10 14 11 15 O A. 14.00 B. 14.87 O C. 11.79 D. 13.67

ENGR.ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

14th Edition

ISBN:9780190931919

Author:NEWNAN

Publisher:NEWNAN

Chapter1: Making Economics Decisions

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 1QTC

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Hospitality Hotels forecasts monthly labor needs.(a) Given the following monthly labor fi gures, make a forecastfor June using a three-period moving average and a fi veperiod moving average. Month Actual ValuesJanuary 32February 41March 38April 39May 43 (b) What would be the forecast for June using the naïvemethod?(c) If the actual labor fi gure for June turns out to be 41, whatwould be the forecast for July using each of these models?(d) Compare the accuracy of these models using the meanabsolute deviation (MAD).(e) Compare the accuracy of these models using the meansquared error (MSE).
Problem 12
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(Figure: Interpreting Equations on a Graph) In the graph, if x is 0, then the y-intercept is y%3D14 + 6x O 14. O 14.6. 0. O 0.6.
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A4
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6-5 Given: Consider the following time series data. week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 18 13 16 11 17 14 Week Time Series Value Forecast 1 18 2 13 3 16 15.6667 4 11 13.3333 5 17 14.6667 6 14 14 MSE = 11.889 Forecast for week 7 = 14 Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Week Time SeriesValue Forecast 1 18 2 13 3 16 4 11 5 17 6 14 MSE: The forecast for week 7: Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using α = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE?