Two methods, A and B, are available for teaching a certain industrial skill. The failure rate is 20% for A and 10% for B. However, B is more expensive and hence is used only 30% of the time. ( A is used the other 70%.) A worker was taught the skill by one of the methods but failed to learn it correctly. What is the probability that she was taught by method A?
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Two methods, A and B, are available for teaching a certain industrial skill. The failure rate is 20% for A and 10% for B. However, B is more expensive and hence is used only 30% of the time. ( A is used the other 70%.) A worker was taught the skill by one of the methods but failed to learn it correctly. What is the
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- At a certain large company, the floor manager reviewing inventory and production. She ultimately comes to the decision that a product should be continued if it sold 150,000 times over the previous year. In addition, the product is considered “popular” if it receives at least 100 mentions by the local press over the past year. An analyst is hired to help with the analysis. The analyst determines that the probability of sales exceeding 150,000 was 0.331, the probability of 100 or more mentions was 0.162, and the probability that a product both sold 150,000 items, and was also ‘popular’ is 0.064. What is the probability that a randomly selected product either sold the requisite 150,000 items, or that it is ‘popular’? Again, phrase your answers in terms of probability variables (e.g. P(X) = ..., P(Y)=... etc.) If we are told that an item has indeed reached the threshold of 100 mentions in the press, what is the probability of it selling 150,000 times? Thought Question: Where would the…Jerry is excited to go shoot clay pidgeons with some friends this weekend. He has been practicing and knows that he can hit the clays 79% of the time. His two buddies decided that the person who hits the most out of the next 17 will get treated to lunch. Andy just shot 8 clays, and Tim was able to hit 13. Here is Jerry's probability table: X PMF CDF 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 3 0 0 4 1.0E-6 2.0E-6 5 1.4E-5 1.6E-5 6 0.000105 0.000121 7 0.000623 0.000744 8 0.002929 0.003673 9 0.01102 0.014693 10 0.033165 0.047858 11 0.079395 0.127254 12 0.149339 0.276592 13 0.216076 0.492668 14 0.232245 0.724913 15 0.174737 0.899649 16 0.082168 0.981817 17 0.018183 1 Note: Report all probabilities in decimal form accurate to 3 places. Questions: First and foremost, Jerry doesn't want to embarrass himself. He just wants to beat out Andy. What is the probability that he will do better than 8? If Jerry were to do rounds of 17 clays repeatedly and average the results,…A manufacturing company produces two types of smartphones, A and B. 30% of the smartphones produced are type A, while 70% are type B. The defect rate for type A smartphones is 2%, while the defect rate for type B smartphones is 4%. If a customer receives a defective smartphone, what is the probability that it is of type A? Show your calculations and reasoning.
- A store specializing in mountain bikes is to open in one of two malls. If the first mall is selected, the store anticipates a yearly profit of $1,425,000 if successful and a yearly loss of $475,000 otherwise. The probability of success is 1. If the second mall is selected, it is estimated that the yearly profit will be $950,000 if successful; 3 otherwise, the annual loss will be $285,000. The probability of success at the second mall is Complete parts (a) through (c) below 4 - a. What is the expected profit for the first mall?Oxnard petri Ltd is buying hurricane insurance for it's off-coast drilling platform. During the next five years, the probability of total loss of only the above-water superstructure ($250 million) is .25, the probability of total loss of the facility ($950 million) is.25, and the probability of no loss is.50. Find the expected loss.( Input the amount as a positive value.) Expected Loss is what?Your car is making a funny noise. You believe that the problem is either with the wheel or the axle, and you believe the probability is 0.3 that the wheel needs to be replaced, and 0.7 that the axle needs to be replaced. You need to decide whether to replace the wheel or the axle first. The cost of each alternative is given in the following table (if you decided to replace the wrong part first, you have to replace both of them). The Wheel is broken p = 0.3 The Axle is broken p = 0.7 Replace Wheel First Replace Axle First 600 1500 1500 900 a) Find the EV of each decision alternative. Which part should you replace first? b) What is the EVPI?
- You purchase a brand new car for $15,000 and insure it. The policy pays 78% of the car's value if there is an issue with the engine or 30% of the car's value if there is an issue with the speaker system. The probability of an issue with the engine is 0.009, and the probability there is an issue with the speaker system is 0.02. The premium for the policy is p. Let X be the insurance company's net gain from this policy. (a) Create a probability distribution for X, using p to represent the premium on the policy. Enter the possible values of X in ascending order from left to right. P(X) (b) Compute the minimum amount the insurance company will charge for this policy. Round your answer to the nearest centWFC Average St. Dev. Min 0.65% 10.26% -28.99% Мах 27.51% 25. Based on the table above, what is the probability of losing -7% or more for WFC? A. 0.07 B. 0.14 C. 0,23 D. 0.29 %3D E. 0.31 26. If you have $200,000 invested in WFC, what is the dollar value of VaR of losing -7% or more? A. $14,000 B. $28,000 C. $46,000 D. $58,000 E. $62,000 27. Based on the table above, there is 30% chance that your losses for WFC will be greater than A. -0,30% B. 2.15% C. 4.73% D. 7% E. -14% 28. Based on the table above, there is 30% chance that your dollar losses for WFC will be greater than if you have $200,000 invested in ti? A. -S600 B. $4,300 C. -$9,460 D. -$14,000 E. S28,000Suppose an oil company is thinking of buying some land for $10,000,000. There is a 60%60% chance of economic growth and a 40%40% chance of recession. The probability of discovering oil is 44%44% when there is economic growth and 32%32% when there is a recession. If there is economic growth and the oil company discovers oil, the value of the land will triple. If they do not discover oil, the value of the land will decrease by 10%.10%. If there is a recession and the company discovers oil, the value of the land will increase by 50%.50%. If they do not discover oil, the land will decrease in value by 75%.75%. What is the expected value of the investment? Give your answer to the nearest dollar. Avoid rounding within calculations. $$ Select the correct interpretation of the expected value. The expected value represents what the actual investment value will be for this land purchase of $10,000,000. The company should make the investment because the expected value…
- Both flu and covid produce fevers. You know from past research that 10% of the population gets flu each year, but it is possible to get both covid and flu. Assume that the probability of getting flu and covid are independent. If this year the percentage of people reporting fever is 20%, what percentage of the population has covid? Studies show that due to similar transmission of flu and covid, someone who has covid has a 20% chance of also getting flu. What then is the probability of someone who has flu also having covid? Given the conditional information above, what is a better estimate of the percentage of people who have covid given the 20% fever reporting?Johnny plans to go biking or hiking over the weekend. The probability that he does at least one of these is 0.70 while the probability that he does both is only 0.50. If Johnny is equally likely to go biking as to go hiking, what is the probability that he goes biking but not hiking?Ken has applied to both FSU and the UGA. He thinks the probability that FSU will admit him is 0.4, the probability that UGA will admit him is 0.5, and the probability that both will admit him is 0.1. What is the probability that Ken will not get into either school?
