Tracy is the the Director of Supply Chain at Circuits Inc. An accurate forecast at Circuits Inc. is veryimportant because of the long lead times for raw materials. Tracy has asked you to quickly pulltogether forecast accuracy information over the last 5 months to share at the upcoming S & OPmeeting.MonthDemandForecast11,2001,15021,7501,5302,2501,96241,6001,7451,5501,628What is the MAD for month 5? (use 2 decimal places)O Less than or equal to 100O Greater than 150 but less than or equal to 200Greater than 250O Greater than 200 but less than or equal to250

Error = Actual demand - Forecast Absolute Error = Positive Value of Error MAD = Average of Absolute…

Answered: Tracy is the the Director of Supply…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...

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part b
Sales of tablet computers at Ted Glickman's electronicsstore in Washington, D.C., over the past 10 weeks are shownin the ta ble below: a) Forecast demand for each week, including week 10, usingexponential smoothing with a = .5 (in itial forecast = 20).b) Compute the MAD.c) Compute the tracking signal.
The demand data for Double T Computer Services appears below. The company wants you to forecast the demand for period 4. What is your forecast using the least squares method? Period Demand 1 37 2 40 3 40
Sales of Volkswagen's popular Beetle have grown steadily at auto dealerships in Nevada during the past 5 years (see table below) Year Sales 1 455 2 495 516 4 563 584 a) Forecasted sales for year 6 using a 3-year moving average is sales (round your response to one decimal place). b) The MAD for a 3-year moving average based forecast is sales (round your response to one decimal place). c) The MSE for a 3-year moving average based forecast is sales (round your response to the nearest whole number).
UltraPure used two different techniques (F1 and F2) to forecast demand for cases of bottled water. Actual demand and the two sets of forecasts are in the table below. PREDICTED DEMAND Period Demand F1 F2 1 68 67 60 2 75 67 67 3 70 71 70 4 74 69 72 5 69 71 77 6 72 70 77 7 80 72 75 8 78 75 83 a. Compute MAD for each set of forecasts. Given your results, which forecast appears to be more accurate? (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.)
Explain why is accurate forecasting so important to companies that use a continuous replenishment inventory system?
Asvnch Problem - Statistical Forecasting Data Set – Eunice BC Fashion Monthly Sales, in million units. Year Total Sales Year Total Sales 2010 38 2016 43 2011 41 2017 40 2012 40 2018 45 2013 45 2019 47 2014 50 2020 42 2015 42 2021 48 Questions: a. Find the naïve forecast. b. Use the 3 years moving average forecast. c. Have a 5 years weighted moving average. d. Develop forecast using exponential smoothing with a = 0.2. e. Determine the trend line equation and present the forecast. f. Find the best forecast for year 2022. Note: Use the first 5 years as the training samples and the last 5 years as the forecasting samples. Solve it in Excel Sheet/Sheet with Equations as possible.
The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years: Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Demand 6 8 4 7 11 7 13 12 10 13 8 This exercise contains only parts b, c, and d. Part 2 b) Using the 3-year moving average, provide the forecast from periods 4 through 12 (round your responses to one decimal place). Part 3 c) Using the 3-year weighted moving average with weights 0.10, 0.30, and 0.60, using 0.60 for the most recent period, provide the forecast from periods 4 through 12 (round your responses to two decimal places). Part 4 d) Mean absolute deviation for the forecast developed…
Given the following historical data, what is the simple three-period moving average forecast for period 6? Period 1 2 3 4 5 67.67 68.2 67.3 68.4 Value 73 66 64 73 66
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41) A medium-term forecast is considered to cover what length of time? A) 2-4 weeks B) 1 month to 1 year C) 2-4 years D) 5-10 years E) 20 years 42) When is the exponential smoothing model equivalent to the naÃ¯ve forecasting model? A) ? = 0 B) ? = 0.5 C) ? = 1 D) during the first period in which it is used E) never 43) Enrollment in a particular class for the last four semesters has been 120, 126, 110, and 130. Suppose a one-semester moving average was used to forecast enrollment (this is sometimes referred to as a naÃ¯ve forecast). Thus, the forecast for the second semester would be 120, for the third semester it would be 126, and for the last semester it would be 110. What would the MSE be for this situation? A) 196.00 B) 230.67 C) 100.00 D) 42.00 E) None of the above 44) Which of the following methods tells whether the forecast tends to be too high or too low? A) MAD B) MSE C) MAPE D) decomposition E) bias 45) Assume that you have tried three different…
The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years: Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Demand 6 8 4 9 13 8 11 14 9 13 7 Part 2 Using exponential smoothing with α = 0.40 and a forecast for year 1 of 5.0, provide the forecast from periods 2 through 12 (round your responses to one decimal place). Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Forecast 5.0 5.45.4 6.46.4 5.55.5 6.96.9 9.39.3 8.88.8 9.79.7 11.411.4 10.410.4 11.511.5 9.79.7 Part 3 Provide the forecast from periods 2 through 12 using the naive approach (enter your responses as whole numbers). Year 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Forecast enter your response here enter your response here enter your response here enter your…

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