This problem is derived from Exercise (4) at the end of Chapter 6 of Wilson and Keating (2009). In a time series decomposition of sales (measured in millions of units), the following linear trend regression has been estimated:

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This problem is derived from Exercise (4) at the end of Chapter 6 of Wilson and Keating (2009).
In a time series decomposition of sales (measured in millions of units), the following linear trend
regression has been estimated:
cmat, = 4.7 + 0.37 trend,.
The table below presents the quarterly seasonal indexes and the values of the time index (trend)
and the cycle factor for the coming year.
Cycle Factor
(CF)
Time Index
Seasonal Index
Quarter
(trend)
(SI)
1.24
1
21
1.01
2
22
1.01
1.04
3
23
0.76
1.06
4
24
0.99
1.04
Use the information above to prepare a forecast of sales for each quarter of the coming year.
Transcribed Image Text:This problem is derived from Exercise (4) at the end of Chapter 6 of Wilson and Keating (2009). In a time series decomposition of sales (measured in millions of units), the following linear trend regression has been estimated: cmat, = 4.7 + 0.37 trend,. The table below presents the quarterly seasonal indexes and the values of the time index (trend) and the cycle factor for the coming year. Cycle Factor (CF) Time Index Seasonal Index Quarter (trend) (SI) 1.24 1 21 1.01 2 22 1.01 1.04 3 23 0.76 1.06 4 24 0.99 1.04 Use the information above to prepare a forecast of sales for each quarter of the coming year.
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