Thinking of a manufacturing company, how might probability be a part of their quality control? Which companies might consider more outcomes as “unusual” based on the sensitivity of what they produce? Why? short answer please
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Thinking of a manufacturing company, how might probability be a part of their quality control? Which companies might consider more outcomes as “unusual” based on the sensitivity of what they produce? Why?
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- What type of risk does sensitivity analysis address?A national survey indicated that 30% of adults conduct their banking online. It also found that 40% are under the age of 50, and that 25% are under the age of 50 and conduct their banking online. A. What percentage of adults do not conduct their banking online? B. What type of probability is the 25% mentioned above? Just write down the name of the probability. C. Construct a joint probability table showing all joint and marginal probabilities.Sun TV sells TV sets. It does not sell smart TVs so customers do not come to Sun TV if they want to purchase smart TVs. Sun TV wants to start selling smart TVs and will only sell smart TVs to customers to whom they advertise. Managers use customer information (income level, previous purchase history) to decide which customers they should target. The team needs to decide how sure it must be in predicting customer interest in a smart TV. If it is too cautious, it will choose a very high cutoff probability and only market to customers who it believes are very likely to be in the market for a smart TV. This may cause them to miss out on many customers. If they are too aggressive and choose a low cutoff probability, they may identify more individuals interested in buying smart TVs but also end up wasting marketing dollars on customers who are not interested in purchasing smart TVs. To choose a cutoff probability, the team develops the confusion matrices below for two cutoff probabilities on…
- a) Calculate the three point moving averages (quarters) and seasonal variation for the above data b) A detective figures he has a one in nine chance of recovering stolen property. His out-of-pocket expenses for the investigation are $9,000. He is only paid his fee if he recovers the stolen property, what should he charge clients in order to breakeven? c) At races, your horse, has a probability of 1/20 of coming 1st, 1/10 of coming 2nd and a probability of 1⁄4 in coming 3rd. First place pays $4,500 to the winner, second place $3,500 and third place $1,500.Hence, is it worth entering the race if it costs $799? d) Your company plans to invest in a particular project. There is a 35% chance you will lose $30,000, a 40% chance you will break even, and a 25% chance you will make $65,000. Based solely on this information, what should youdo? e) A manufacturer is considering the production of a new and better mousetrap. She estimates the probability that the new mousetrap is successful is 3⁄4.…List two examples each of variation, foreseen uncertainty, and unforeseen uncertainty that you have personally experienced in your studiesWhat information does a decision maker need in order to perform an expected-value analysis ofa problem? What options are available to the decision maker if the probabilities of the states ofnature are unknown? Can you think of a way you might use sensitivity analysis in such a case?
- What are the advanatges and limitations of using each Quantitaive Risk Assessments such as Bayesian Network, Fault Tree Analysis, Event Tree Analysis and Bow Tie Analysis in the oil refinery storage industry?A local manufacturing firm which produces engineer to order and assemble to order high value products for the pharmaceutical industry has recently been requested by its owner to provide a proposal on the benefits of a predictive performance model and methodology from a workshop that you have recently completed. You are requested to produce the following report: 1. Review the current state of the practice of performance reporting within firms. 2. Suggest a suite of appropriate key performance measures. 3. Explain the benefits of an Ex-Ante or Predictive Performance approach to enterprise performance management. 4. Recommend a methodology on how this type of Enterprise Performance Model might be deployed within actual firms. It is recommended that you use appropriate examples from the literature or your prior industrial experience to support any recommendations that you provide.About 8% of the U.S. population catches the flu each season. Assuming everyone has equal probability of catching the flu, about what are the odds of catching the flu in a given season? 1. 1 in 8 2. 1 in 12 3. 1 in 18 4. 1 in 80
- The Valley Wine Company purchases grapes from either of two nearby grape growers each season to produce a particular red wine. It purchases enough grapes to produce 3000 bottles of the wine. Each grower supplies a certain portion of poor quality grapes, resulting in a percentage of bottles being used as fillers for cheaper table wines according to the following probability distribution. Probability of Percent Defective Defective (%) Grower A Grower B 2 .15 .30 4 .20 .30 6 .25 .20 8 .30 .10 10 .10 .10 The two growers charge a different prices for their grapes and because of differences in taste, the company charges different prices for their wine depending on which grapes they use. The annual profit from the wine produced from each grower's grapes for each percentage defective is as follows. PROFIT DEFECTIVE GROWER A GROWER B 2% $44,200 $42,600 4 40,200 40,300 6 36,200 38,000 8 32,200 35,700 10 28,200 33,400 Use decision-tree…As part of its business plan, ABC Corp is developing a set of worst-case scenarios. What one(s) should ABC Corp focus one? Select an answer: worst-case scenarios that involve key dependencies all conceivable worst-case scenarios any worst-case scenarios that investors might notice worst-case scenarios that do not require preparedness3. The manager for a manufacturing company must recommend whether to construct a large plant, construct a small plant or do nothing. He estimates the long-run profits in $ as follows: State of Nature Alternative Good Average Poor Market($) Market ($) Market ($) Construct a 100,000 35,000 -60,000 large plant Construct a 75,000 25,000 -40,000 small plant Do nothing -5,000 0 0 Probability 25% 50% 25% Solve using: A. Expected Opportunity Loss B. Expected Value of Perfect Information