Thelma is indifferent between $100 and a bet with a 0.6 chance of no return and a 0.4 chance of $200. If U(0) = 20 and U(200) = 220, then U(100) =
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Thelma is indifferent between $100 and a bet with a 0.6 chance of no return and a 0.4 chance of $200. If U(0) = 20 and U(200) = 220, then U(100) = :
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- Consider a city where everyone commutes to the city center and commuting cost per mile per month is $40. Each household occupies a 1,000-square-foot dwelling and has $7,000 worth of possessions in its dwelling. The probability that any particular household will be burglarized (involving the uninsured loss of all possessions) is 0.10 at the city center and decreases by 0.01 per mile (to 0.09 at one mile, 0.08 at two miles, and so on). The housing price is $1.00 per square foot at the city center. a) Draw the housing-price curve for locations up to five miles from the city center.The prizes that can be one and a sweepstakes are listed below together with the chances of winning each one: $5900(1 chance in 8600); $2700(1 chance in 5000);$600(1 chance in 4800);$200(1chance in 2500). Find the expected value of the amount won for one entry if the cost of entering is 52 centsConsider a city where everyone commutes to the city center, and the commuting cost per mile per month is $50. Each household occupies a 1,500-square-foot dwelling and has $10,000 worth of possessions in its dwelling. The probability that any particular household will be burglarized and lose all its possessions (no insurance) is 0.2 (per month) at the city center and decreases by 0.01 per mile (to 0.19 at one mile, 0.18 at two miles, and so on). The price of housing is $2 per square foot at the city center. 1. Starting from the center, a one-mile move outward changes the expected value of the loss from crime from_______ to _______, a change of _________ per square foot. 2. The slope of the housing-price curve is _________, computed as __________ 3. Draw the housing-price curve for locations up to five miles from the city center. The price changes from ________ at the city center to _________ five miles away.
- You are considering a $500,000 investment in the fast-food industry and have narrowed your choice to either a McDonald's or a Penn Station East Coast Subs franchise. McDonald's indicates that, based on the location where you are proposing to open a new restaurant, there is a 25 percent probability that aggregate 10-year profits (net of the initial investment) will be $16 million, a 50 percent probability that profits will be $8 million, and a 25 percent probability that profits will be -$1.6 million. The aggregate 10-year profit projections (net of the initial investment) for a Penn Station East Coast Subs franchise is $48 million with a 2.5 percent probability, $8 million with a 95 percent probability, and -$48 million with a 2.5 percent probability. Considering both the risk and expected profitability of these two investment opportunities, which is the better investment? Explain carefully.You consider buying a lot on which you will build a small apartment complex. The asking price for the lot is $2,000,000 and the estimated cost to build the apartment complex is $5,000,000 (construction should take one year). One year from the date you intend to purchase the lot the city is going to make an important decision regarding the use of the land just across from your lot. You believe that there is a 35% chance that the decision would be favorable to you and a 65% chance that it would be unfavorable. In case of a favorable or unfavorable outcome your complex should generate an NOI of $400,000 or $300,000 respectively. For simplicity, you may assume that at any time you can sell your complex for a 5% CAP and your required rate of return is 8%. a. Calculate the value of the lot using the traditional approach.b. Calculate the value of the lot using the real option approach.c. Should you buy the lot?d. In case that you decided to buy the lot, should you build the apartment complex…A property owner is faced with a choice of: A large-scale investment to improve her flats. This could produce a substantial pay-off in terms of increased revenue net of costs but will require an investment of 1.4 million pesos. After extensive market research it is considered that there is a 40% chance that a pay-off of 2.5million will be obtained, but there is a 60% chance that it will be only 800,000 pesos. A smaller scale project to re-decorate her premises. At 500,000 pesos this is less costly but will produce a lower pay-off. Research data suggests a 30% chance of a gain of one million pesos but a 70% chance of being only 500,000 pesos. Continuing the present operation without change. It will cost nothing but neither will it produce any pay-off. Clients will be unhappy and it will become harder to rent the flats out when they become free. What is the best alternative? Use decision tree analysis.
- Bill owes Bob $36. Just before Bill pays him the money, he gives Bob the opportunity to play a dice game to potentially win more money. The rules of this game are as follows: If Bob rolls doubles (probability 1/6), Bill will Bob double ($72). If he misses doubles on pay the first try, he can try again or settle for half the money ($18). If he makes doubles on the second try Bill will again pay-up double ($72), but if Bob misses doubles on the second try Bill will only pay him one-third ($12). Should Bob decide to play the dice game with Bill, or insist that he pay the $36 now? Use a decision tree to support your answer.Suppose that Mike, with utility function, u(x) = v x+5000, is offered a gamble where a coin is flipped twice, and if the coin comes up heads both times (probability - .25), he gets $40,000. Would he prefer this gamble or $7,500 for sure? What is his Certainty Equivalent?Suppose Don's wants to invest to build a condominium tower in Moscow. If he can get his friend Vlad to buy one of the units, he figures the investment will be a success (because all Vlad's rich friends will want to buy one too) and his income will be $1,000,000 this year. However, there is a 60% chance that Vlad will not be interested. In that case, the investment will fail and Don's income will be only $100,000. Don's utility function is U=In(income) The British insurance company Lloyds of London will insure the investment and they will charge him a premium of $600,000. Graph the risk situation described above. Note the expected utility. What would be the actuarially fair premium for a policy that would pay Don $900,000 in the event the investment fails? а. b С. What is Don's Risk Premium? d. Will Don buy the policy from Lloyd's of London? Explain why or why not?
- You are currently a worker earning $60,000 per year but are considering becoming an entrepreneur.You will not switch unless you earn an accounting profit that is on average at least as great as your current salary. You look into opening a small grocery store. Suppose that the store has annual costs of $150,000 for labor, $50,000 for rent and $40,000 for equipment. There is a one half probability that revenues will be $210,000 and a one half probability that revenues will be $410,000. Your economis profit? Suppose the government imposes a 25 percent tax on accounting profits. This tax is only levied if a firm is earning positive accounting profits. What will your after tax accounting profit be in the low revenue case? In the high revenue case? What will your average after tax accounting profit be?Cheryl Druehl Retailers, Inc., must decide whether to build a small or a large facility at a new location in Fairfax. Demand at the location will either be low or high, with probabilities 0.6 and 0.4, respectively. If Cheryl builds a small facility and demand proves to be high, she then has the option of expanding the facility. If a small facility is built and demand proves to be high, and then the retailer expands the facility, the payoff is $230,000. If a small facility is built and demand proves to be high, but Cheryl then decides not to expand the facility, the payoff is $183,000. If a small facility is built and demand proves to be low, then there is no option to expand and the payoff is $250,000. If a large facility is built and demand proves to be low, Cheryl then has the option of stimulating demand through local advertising. If she does not exercise this option, then the payoff is $45,000. If she does exercise the advertising option, then the response to advertising will…A lottery has a grand prize of $1,000,000, 2 runner-up prizes of $100,000 each, 6 third-place prizes of $10,000 each, and 19 consolation prizes of $1,000 each. If a 4 million tickets are sold for $1 each, and the probability of any ticket winning is the same as that of any other winning, find the expected return on a $1 ticket. (Round your answer to 2 decimal places.
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