The team meeting will be held in 3 days from the date of the assignment and because of the limitation oftime the Chief economist has given you the following guidelines:(a) Is there a trend in total accidents?(b) Is there seasonality in total accidents?(c) Consider the following change in the time series model: y; = P1yt-1 + utwhere ut follows a white noise process. What is the condition we need to impose on p1 in orderfor the series yt to be weakly stationary? Why?(d) Consider the following change in the time series model: y; = Bo + B1x1-1+ B2xt-2 + uwhere y, is some outcome variable of interest, and x-1 and x-2 are strictly exogenousexplanatory variables. How would you test for the presence of serial correlation in the residualuz?(e) Briefly explain how you would carry out econometric analysis of the model in (d) if u, is found tobe stationary, but positively serially correlated.

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Answered: The team meeting will be held in 3 days…

MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications

6th Edition

ISBN:9781119256830

Author:Amos Gilat

Publisher:Amos Gilat

Chapter1: Starting With Matlab

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 1P

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The price of bananas fluctuates on the world market. The prices ($/tonne) for the years 2000-2004 are shown in the table. 2000 388.44 a) Sitonne (Round to two decimal places as needed.) 2001 615.79 2002 565.33 a) Find a 3-year moving average prediction for the price in 2005. b) Find a prediction for 2005 with an exponential smoothing model with a=0.3, beginning with the initial value. c) The actual price of bananas in 2005 was 540 $/tonne. Compute the absolute percentage error for each prediction.. 2003 302.05 2004 561.22
2
Explain the time series regression model assumptions?
As an active environmentalist who is interested in the impact of climate change on sea level, you focused in developing a mathematical model on the rise of sea level at Mount Kinabalu yearly. Assume that Mount Kinabalu is 4095m above sea level at the beginning of year 2015 as shown in Figure 2.0. However, due to climate change, you found out that there is an increment of 0.002% sea level at the end of each year. Let Pnrepresents the elevation of n years for Mount Kinabalu. Determine the linear recurrence relation after 1 year, 2 years and 3 years. Find a linear recurrence relation to describe the elevation after n What is the elevation of Mount Kinabalu at the end of year 2020?
Suppose the general fund revenue receipts for a particular U.S. state for 2003 (period 1) to 2017 (period 15) are in the following table. Year Period 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 General Fund Revenue Receipts ($ billions) 6.683 6.878 7.535 8.276 8.473 8.554 8.326 8.125 8.659 8.991 9.208 9.443 9.866 10.228 10.378
The quarterly sales data (number of copies sold) for a college textbook over the past three years follow. a) Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data? b) Use a regression model with dummy variables as follows to develop an equation to account for seasonal effects in the data. Qtr1=1 if Quarter 1, 0 otherwise; Qtr2=1 if Quarter 2, 0 otherwise; Qtr3=1 if Quarter 3, 0 otherwise. c) Compute the quarterly forecasts for next year. d) Let t=1 to refer to the observation in quarter 1 of year 1; t=2 to refer to the observation in quarter 2 of year 1; ...; and t=12 to refer to the observation in quarter 4 of year 3. Using the dummy variables defined in part (b) and also using t, develop an equation to account for seasonal effects and any linear trend in the time series. Based upon the seasonal effects in the data and linear trend, compute the quarterly forecasts for next year.
What is the MA3 forecast for Year 4, Q1? What is the weighted MA3 forecast for Year 4, Q1 with weights of 0.5, 0.33, and 0.17? What is the Exponential Smoothing forecast for Year 4, Q1 using alpha = 0.3? What is the Adjusted Exponential Smoothing forecast for Year 4, Q1 using alpha = 0.3 and beta = 0.5?
(b) Develop a three-month moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for month 8. If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Do not round intermediate calculation. MSE The forecast for month 8: (c) Use a 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for month R. If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Do not round intermediate calculation. MSE: The forecast for month 8: (d) Compare the three-month moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using a 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE? Select your answer- (e) Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient a that results in the smallest MSE. Do not round intermediate calculations. Use a two-decimal digit precision for the exponential smoothing coefficient. Check Mv Wnrk
Please answer part b and c
Part a Based only on the pessimistic estimates, is the new motel economically attractive? Please enter the PW used to reach your decision: $ Carry all interim calculations to 5 decimal places and then round your final answer to the nearest dollar. The tolerance is ±100.
Please explain steps so I can understand. An electrical contractor's records during the last five weeks indicate the number of job requests: Week 1 2 3 4 5 Requests 21 22 18 21 22 Predict the number of requests for week 6 using each of these methods: Naive A three period moving average Weighted moving average using 0.50 for week 5, 0.35 for week 4, and 0.15 for week 3. Exponential smoothing with α = .30. Use 20 for week 2 forecast.
I2

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