The managers of a chemical company have to decide whether to extend their existing plant or replace it with completely new equipment. A simulation of the two alternatives gives the following probability distributions of net present value: NPV ($m) -3 to under -2 -2 to under-1 -1 to under 0 0 to under 1 1 to under 2 2 to under 3 3 to under 4 4 to under 5 Extend existing plant 0.05 0.05 0.15 0.29 0.22 0.14 0.10 Probabilities 0.00 Replace with new equipment 0.00 0.05 0.15 0.26 0.21 0.18 0.10 0.05

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
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Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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Thye managers of a chemical company have to decide whether to extend their existing plant or replace it with ne wequipment. Compare the two distributions and state any necessary assumptions and determine the option that the management should choose

The managers of a chemical company have to decide whether to extend their existing plant or replace
it with completely new equipment. A simulation of the two alternatives gives the following probability
distributions of net present value:
NPV ($m)
-3 to under-2
-2 to under -1
-1 to under 0
0 to under 1
1 to under 2
2 to under 3
3 to under 4
4 to under 5
Extend existing plant
0.05
0.05
0.15
0.29
0.22
0.14
0.10
Probabilities
0.00
Replace with new
equipment
0.00
0.05
0.15
0.26
0.21
0.18
0.10
0.05
Transcribed Image Text:The managers of a chemical company have to decide whether to extend their existing plant or replace it with completely new equipment. A simulation of the two alternatives gives the following probability distributions of net present value: NPV ($m) -3 to under-2 -2 to under -1 -1 to under 0 0 to under 1 1 to under 2 2 to under 3 3 to under 4 4 to under 5 Extend existing plant 0.05 0.05 0.15 0.29 0.22 0.14 0.10 Probabilities 0.00 Replace with new equipment 0.00 0.05 0.15 0.26 0.21 0.18 0.10 0.05
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