The manager of the Petroco Service Station wants to forecast the demand for unleadedgasoline next month so that the proper number of gallons can be ordered from thedistributor. The owner has accumulated the following data on demand for unleadedgasoline from sales during the past 10 months. Compute an exponentially smoothedforecast with an a value of .30. According to the result from Excel and/or POM-QM,the forecast for the month of January would be (type number only, two decimals)MonthOctoberNovemberDecemberJanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJuly733.25Gasoline Demanded (gal.)8007256305006456907308101,200980 In the Petroco Service Station problem, for the exponentially smoothed forecast withan a value of .50, compute the mean absolute deviation (MAD) via Excel and/or POM-QM. It is (type number only, two decimals)248.13

Exponential smoothing is a forecasting methodology that is extensively used to make a reliable…

Answered: The manager of the Petroco Service…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...

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Café Michigan's manager, Gary Stark, suspects that demand for mocha latte coffees depends on the price being charged. Based on historical observations, Gary has gathered the following data, which show the numbers of these coffees sold over six different price values: D Price $2.50 $3.40 $2.10 $4.30 $3.00 $4.10 Using simple linear regression and given that the price per cup is $1.75, the forecasted demand for mocha latte coffees will be cups (enter your response rounded to one decimal place). Number Sold 765 515 975 245 315 480
Compute the forecast sale using α = 0.20 and α = 0.35 respectively. (Note: express all answers using 4 decimal places)
Jean and Dinah had been in business for two years producing umbrellas to be sold to the cruise ship passengers when they docked. They found that they are constantly out of umbrellas and had to rush producions which has resulted in the increase of their production cost. Jean has a nephew who is enrolled in the UWIOC and he advised her to prepare forecasted qualities using the sales that they made over the past months. The data below represents sales for the last 9 months. In order to assist Jean and Dinah you are asked to; a. plot the data on a graph showing the trend b. determine the equation of the trend line c. predict sales for month 10 and 11. Months Sales 1 44 2 52 3 50 4 54 5 55 6 55 7 60 8 56 9 62
d) Using exponential smoothing with α = 0.40 and the forecast for year 1 being 3,000, the forecast for year 6 = ? miles (round your response to the nearest whole number).
The number of cases of merlot wine sold by the Connor Owen winery in an eight-year period is as follows: CASES OF MERLOT WINE 276 362 YEAR 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 404 462 364 506 416 382 Using an exponential smoothing model with an alpha value of 0.30, estimate the smoothed value calculated as of the end of 2012. Use the average demand for 2005 through 2007 as your initial forecast for 2008, and then smooth the forecast forward to 2012. (Round your intermediate calculations and final answer to the nearest whole number.) Answer is complete but not entirely correct. Forecast for 2012 372
In a retail store, the actual sales of a particular product (in thousands of units) over the past few months are as follows: Month Sales 1 16 2 22 3 18 4 20 5 23 Using exponential smoothing method with α (smoothing constant) of 0.75 and the given forecast for month 1 equal to 10, what is the forecast for month 6?
Mark Gershon, owner of a musical instrument distributorship, thinks that demand for guitars may be related to the number of television appearances by the popular group Maroon 5 during the previous month. Gershon has collected the data shown in the following table: Maroon 5 TV Appearances Demand for Guitars Y = This exercise contains only parts b, c, and d. b) Using the least-squares regression method, the equation for forecasting is (round your responses to four decimal places): + 4 2 X 5 7 5 9 7 6 7 6 10 7
Medium-term forecasts are used for making medium-term decisions related to planning for new products, capital expenditures, facility location or expansion, and research and development. True False
b. Compute 2s control limits for each forecast. (Do not round your intermediate calculations. Round your answers to 2 decimal places.) Forecast Method 1 Method 2 Control Limits
4. The yearly demand for units manufactured by the Orion Company Limited has been as follows:Year Units Year Units1 520 5 8602 830 6 9403 520 7 9904 750 8 850Required:i. Prepare a forecast for year 5 through 8 by using a three-year simple moving average.What is the forecast for year 9?ii. Calculate the Cumulative Frequency Error (CFE), Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD),Mean Squared Error (MSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as at the endof year 8.
A company wants to generate a forecast for unit demand for year 2017 using exponential smoothing. The actual demand in year 2016 was 120. The forecast demand in year 2016 was 110. Using this data and a smoothing constant alpha of 0.1, which of the following is the resulting year 2017 forecast value?
3)The errors in a particular forecast are as follows: 3, -3, 4, 0, -2. What is the tracking signal for each period of the forecast? (use excel to show formulas )

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