The manager of a travel agency has been using a seasonally adjusted forecast to predict demand for packaged tours. The actual and predicted values are as follows:Period, Demand, Predicted1 129 1242 194 2003 156 1504 91 945 85 806 132 1407 126 1288 126 1249 95 10010 149 15011 98 9412 85 8013 137 14014 134 128a. Compute MAD for the fifth period, then update it period by period using exponential smoothing with α = .3.b. Compute a tracking signal for periods 5 through 14 using the initial and updated MADs. If limits of ± 4 are used, what can you conclude?

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A:

Forecasting in Business

Forecasting is the process of predicting the future based on the past and the present data and circumstances. In other words, forecasting is the act of making a detailed analysis of future events based on the decisions made in the past as well as the present. Forecasting plays a very important role in operational management as it helps in planning and decision-making. It is not only important for the success of a business but also contributes to individual growth and success. Many business organizations or companies have failed due to the shortcomings of their forecasting.