The management of Brinkley Corporation is interested in using simulation to estimate the profit per unit for a new product. The selling price for the product will be $45 per unit. Probability distributions for the purchase cost, the labor cost, and the transportation cost are estimated as follows:   Procurement Cost ($) Probability Labor Cost ($) Probability Transportation Cost ($) Probability 10 0.25 20 0.10 3 0.75 11 0.45 22 0.25 5 0.25 12 0.30 24 0.35         25 0.30

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The management of Brinkley Corporation is interested in using simulation to estimate the profit per unit for a new product. The selling price for the product will be $45 per unit. Probability distributions for the purchase cost, the labor cost, and the transportation cost are estimated as follows:

 

Procurement
Cost ($)

Probability

Labor Cost ($)

Probability
Transportation
Cost ($)

Probability
10 0.25 20 0.10 3 0.75
11 0.45 22 0.25 5 0.25
12 0.30 24 0.35    
    25 0.30    

 

 

  1. Why is the simulation approach to risk analysis preferable to generating a variety of what-if scenarios?


  2. Management believes the project may not be sustainable if the profit per unit is less than $5. Use simulation to estimate the probability the profit per unit will be less than $5. If required, round your answer to two decimal places.
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