The Hermit's Epidemic Expected value has very practical applications. For example, it can be used in the study of infectious diseases. The following is an extremely simplified version of such a study. Despite of the somewhat unrealistic nature of the problem, it should help you to see how this statistic can be used. Six (unusually sociable) hermits live on an otherwise deserted island. An infectious disease strikes the island. The disease has a 1-day infectious period and after that the person is immune (cannot get the disease again). Assume one of the hermits gets the disease (maybe from a piece of Skylab). He randomly visits one of the other hermits during his infectious period. If the visited hermit has not had the disease, he gets it and is infectious the following day. The visited hermit then visits another hermit. The disease is transmitted until an infectious hermit visits an immune hermit, and the disease dies out. There is one hermit visit per day. Assuming this pattern of behaviour, how many hermits can be expected, on the average, to get the disease? (from Using Statistics by Travers, Stout, Swift, and Sextro - p67) Questions: What is the least number of hermits that could get infected? 2. What is the greatest number of hermits that could get infected? 3. P(Hermit affect another) = 4. P(All hermits affected) ? 5. What is the expected number to become affected?

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The Hermit's Epidemic Expected value has
very practical applications. For example, it
can be used in the study of infectious
diseases. The following is an extremely
simplified version of such a study. Despite
of the somewhat unrealistic nature of the
problem, it should help you to see how
this statistic can be used. Six (unusually
sociable) hermits live on an otherwise
deserted island. An infectious disease
strikes the island. The disease has a 1-day
infectious period and after that the person
is immune (cannot get the disease again).
Assume one of the hermits gets the
disease (maybe from a piece of Skylab).
He randomly visits one of the other
hermits during his infectious period. If the
visited hermit has not had the disease, he
gets it and is infectious the following day.
The visited hermit then visits another
hermit. The disease is transmitted until an
infectious hermit visits an immune hermit,
and the disease dies out. There is one
hermit visit per day. Assuming this pattern
of behaviour, how many hermits can be
expected, on the average, to get the
disease? (from Using Statistics by Travers,
Stout, Swift, and Sextro-- p67) Questions:
What is the least number of hermits that
could get infected? What is the greatest
number of hermits that could get infected?
P (Hermit affect another) ? All hermits
affected
Transcribed Image Text:The Hermit's Epidemic Expected value has very practical applications. For example, it can be used in the study of infectious diseases. The following is an extremely simplified version of such a study. Despite of the somewhat unrealistic nature of the problem, it should help you to see how this statistic can be used. Six (unusually sociable) hermits live on an otherwise deserted island. An infectious disease strikes the island. The disease has a 1-day infectious period and after that the person is immune (cannot get the disease again). Assume one of the hermits gets the disease (maybe from a piece of Skylab). He randomly visits one of the other hermits during his infectious period. If the visited hermit has not had the disease, he gets it and is infectious the following day. The visited hermit then visits another hermit. The disease is transmitted until an infectious hermit visits an immune hermit, and the disease dies out. There is one hermit visit per day. Assuming this pattern of behaviour, how many hermits can be expected, on the average, to get the disease? (from Using Statistics by Travers, Stout, Swift, and Sextro-- p67) Questions: What is the least number of hermits that could get infected? What is the greatest number of hermits that could get infected? P (Hermit affect another) ? All hermits affected
The Hermit's Epidemic
Expected value has very practical applications. For example, it can be used in the study of infectious
diseases. The following is an extremely simplified version of such a study. Despite of the somewhat
unrealistic nature of the problem, it should help you to see how this statistic can be used.
Six (unusually sociable) hermits live on an otherwise
deserted island. An infectious disease strikes the island. The
disease has a 1-day infectious period and after that the
person is immune (cannot get the disease again). Assume
one of the hermits gets the disease (maybe from a piece of
Skylab). He randomly visits one of the other hermits during
his infectious period. If the visited hermit has not had the
disease, he gets it and is infectious the following day. The
visited hermit then visits another hermit. The disease is
transmitted until an infectious hermit visits an immune
hermit, and the disease dies out. There is one hermit visit per
day. Assuming this pattern of behaviour, how many hermits
can be expected, on the average, to get the disease?
(from Using Statistics by Travers, Stout, Swift, and Sextro-p67)
Questions:
What is the least number of hermits that could get infected?
2. What is the greatest number of hermits that could get infected?
3. P(Hermit affect another) =
4.P (All hermits affected) ?
5. What is the expected number
to become affected?
Transcribed Image Text:The Hermit's Epidemic Expected value has very practical applications. For example, it can be used in the study of infectious diseases. The following is an extremely simplified version of such a study. Despite of the somewhat unrealistic nature of the problem, it should help you to see how this statistic can be used. Six (unusually sociable) hermits live on an otherwise deserted island. An infectious disease strikes the island. The disease has a 1-day infectious period and after that the person is immune (cannot get the disease again). Assume one of the hermits gets the disease (maybe from a piece of Skylab). He randomly visits one of the other hermits during his infectious period. If the visited hermit has not had the disease, he gets it and is infectious the following day. The visited hermit then visits another hermit. The disease is transmitted until an infectious hermit visits an immune hermit, and the disease dies out. There is one hermit visit per day. Assuming this pattern of behaviour, how many hermits can be expected, on the average, to get the disease? (from Using Statistics by Travers, Stout, Swift, and Sextro-p67) Questions: What is the least number of hermits that could get infected? 2. What is the greatest number of hermits that could get infected? 3. P(Hermit affect another) = 4.P (All hermits affected) ? 5. What is the expected number to become affected?
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