The following data shows the number of customers at a mall in Colorado.Yearcustomers (in thousands)200922,142201023,983201124,122201225,708201326,722201426,955201528,438201629,786201729,502The mall security would like to predict the number of customers in the future. (***MUST USE EXCEL***)Use 2014-2017 as a hold out sample. Calculate the initial Level and Trend using all the data from 2009-2013. Utilize these as the starting point for updating based on seeing 2009 and carry it forward.Use Holt’s method (alpha=0.1,0.25; beta=0.1,0.25, total of four combinations) to forecast the demand for the hold out sample.Calculate the RMSE (square root of MSE), MAD, and TS for each forecast. Please round to the nearest 0.1.The RMSE for alpha = 0.1 and beta = 0.1 is _____.The MAD for alpha = 0.1 and beta = 0.25 is _____.The TS for alpha = 0.25 and beta = 0.25 in Year 2017 is _____.

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6th Edition

ISBN:9781119256830

Author:Amos Gilat

Publisher:Amos Gilat

Chapter1: Starting With Matlab

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 1P

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The following data shows the number of customers at a mall in Colorado.

The mall security would like to predict the number of customers in the future. (***MUST USE EXCEL***)

Use 2014-2017 as a hold out sample. Calculate the initial Level and Trend using all the data from 2009-2013. Utilize these as the starting point for updating based on seeing 2009 and carry it forward.
Use Holt’s method (alpha=0.1,0.25; beta=0.1,0.25, total of four combinations) to forecast the demand for the hold out sample.
Calculate the RMSE (square root of MSE), MAD, and TS for each forecast. Please round to the nearest 0.1.

The RMSE for alpha = 0.1 and beta = 0.1 is _____.

The MAD for alpha = 0.1 and beta = 0.25 is _____.

The TS for alpha = 0.25 and beta = 0.25 in Year 2017 is _____.

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