The fire alarm in a building can go off if there is a fire in the building or if the alarm is tampered with by vandals. If the fire alarm goes off, this can cause crowds to gather at the front of the building and fire trucks to arrive. (a) Represent these causal links in a belief network. Let a stand for “alarm sounds," c for "crowd gathers", f for "fire exists", t for "fire truck arrives", and v for "vandalism exists". (b) Give an example of an independence assumption that is implicit in this network. (c) What are the 10 conditional probabilities that need to be specified to fully determine the joint probability distribution? Suppose that there is a crowd in front of the building one day but that no fire trucks arrive. What is the chance that there is a fire, expressed as some function of the 10 given conditional probabilities?
The fire alarm in a building can go off if there is a fire in the building or if the alarm is tampered with by vandals. If the fire alarm goes off, this can cause crowds to gather at the front of the building and fire trucks to arrive. (a) Represent these causal links in a belief network. Let a stand for “alarm sounds," c for "crowd gathers", f for "fire exists", t for "fire truck arrives", and v for "vandalism exists". (b) Give an example of an independence assumption that is implicit in this network. (c) What are the 10 conditional probabilities that need to be specified to fully determine the joint probability distribution? Suppose that there is a crowd in front of the building one day but that no fire trucks arrive. What is the chance that there is a fire, expressed as some function of the 10 given conditional probabilities?
Step by step
Solved in 4 steps