Task 2. A total of 678 women, who got pregnant under planned pregnancies, were asked how many cycles it took them to get pregnant. The women were classified as smokers and nonsmok- ers; it is of interest to compare the association between smoking and probability of pregnancy. The following table (Weinberg and Gladen, 1986, “The Beta-Geometric Distribution Applied to Comparative Fecundability Studies", Biometrics 42(3): 547–560) summarises part of the data (essentially, women who had used the pill as a contraceptive are excluded). Observed cycles to pregnancY Non- Non- Cycle Smokers smokers Cycle Smokers smokers 1 29 198 8 5 9 16 107 9. 1 3 17 55 10 1 4 4 38 11 1 3 18 12 3 6 6. 9. 22 >12 7 12 7 4 7

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Task 2. A total of 678 women, who got pregnant under planned pregnancies, were asked how
many cycles it took them to get pregnant. The women were classified as smokers and nonsmok-
ers; it is of interest to compare the association between smoking and probability of pregnancy.
The following table (Weinberg and Gladen, 1986, “The Beta-Geometric Distribution Applied
to Comparative Fecundability Studies", Biometrics 42(3): 547–560) summarises part of the
data (essentially, women who had used the pill as a contraceptive are excluded).
Observed cycles to pregnancy
Non-
Non-
Cycle Smokers smokers
Cycle Smokers smokers
1
29
198
8
2
16
107
9.
1
5
17
55
10
1
4
4
38
11
1
3
18
12
9.
22
>12
7
12
7
4
7
The data is available on LMS in the file pregnancies.txt. Contact the lecturer immediately
if you have difficulty accessing this data set (and do not want to enter the data yourself into
R).
(a) Fit a geometric model to each group and compare the estimated probability of pregnancy
per cycle.
(b) Is there any evidence that there is an association between smoking and the probability
of pregnancy? Justify your answer.
Transcribed Image Text:Task 2. A total of 678 women, who got pregnant under planned pregnancies, were asked how many cycles it took them to get pregnant. The women were classified as smokers and nonsmok- ers; it is of interest to compare the association between smoking and probability of pregnancy. The following table (Weinberg and Gladen, 1986, “The Beta-Geometric Distribution Applied to Comparative Fecundability Studies", Biometrics 42(3): 547–560) summarises part of the data (essentially, women who had used the pill as a contraceptive are excluded). Observed cycles to pregnancy Non- Non- Cycle Smokers smokers Cycle Smokers smokers 1 29 198 8 2 16 107 9. 1 5 17 55 10 1 4 4 38 11 1 3 18 12 9. 22 >12 7 12 7 4 7 The data is available on LMS in the file pregnancies.txt. Contact the lecturer immediately if you have difficulty accessing this data set (and do not want to enter the data yourself into R). (a) Fit a geometric model to each group and compare the estimated probability of pregnancy per cycle. (b) Is there any evidence that there is an association between smoking and the probability of pregnancy? Justify your answer.
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