Task 1. The points on opposite sides of a die add up to seven. Assume that you suspect that a die is biased towards rolling sixes. One possible model for the outcome X of a roll of this die would be to use the following probability mass function for X: 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 + { { { { { 0- { [x = 1 1 1 6. 6. 6 where 0 < 0 < is unknown. (a) Assume the die is rolled n = 100 times and we observe y = 32 sixes. (1) How would you model the outcome of this experiment? Clearly state your statistical model. (2) Using your model, find the likelihood function and the log-likelihood function of 0 (given the data). Using the log-likelihood function, also determine the score function. (3) Find the maximum likelihood estimate ô of 0 and its standard error.

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Task 1. The points on opposite sides of a die add up to seven. Assume that you suspect that
a die is biased towards rolling sixes. One possible model for the outcome X of a roll of this die
would be to use the following probability mass function for X:
1
2 3 4 5
Pr[X = x] - 0
1
6.
1
+ 0
|
6.
where 0 < 0 < is unknown.
(a) Assume the die is rolled n = 100 times and we observe y = 32 sixes.
(1) How would you model the outcome of this experiment? Clearly state your statistical
model.
(2) Using your model, find the likelihood function and the log-likelihood function of 0
(given the data). Using the log-likelihood function, also determine the score function.
(3) Find the maximum likelihood estimate ô of 0 and its standard error.
(4) Based on your model and the data, what conclusion do you draw about whether the
die is biased or not?
HINT: You may assume that the sampling distribution of your estimator is approx-
imately normal.
Transcribed Image Text:Task 1. The points on opposite sides of a die add up to seven. Assume that you suspect that a die is biased towards rolling sixes. One possible model for the outcome X of a roll of this die would be to use the following probability mass function for X: 1 2 3 4 5 Pr[X = x] - 0 1 6. 1 + 0 | 6. where 0 < 0 < is unknown. (a) Assume the die is rolled n = 100 times and we observe y = 32 sixes. (1) How would you model the outcome of this experiment? Clearly state your statistical model. (2) Using your model, find the likelihood function and the log-likelihood function of 0 (given the data). Using the log-likelihood function, also determine the score function. (3) Find the maximum likelihood estimate ô of 0 and its standard error. (4) Based on your model and the data, what conclusion do you draw about whether the die is biased or not? HINT: You may assume that the sampling distribution of your estimator is approx- imately normal.
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