QUESTION 1 The same scenario is used for all questions. New parents in a little town buy two major brands of infant formulas, labeled A and B. After some intensive study, a marketing researcher for one of the manufacturers found that the probability of parents purchasing A or B is based on the parents' most recent purchase. Suppose that the following transition probabilities are appropriate Probabilities of Parents Purchasing A or B From A To A To B 0.25 O A O Which of the following is the correct two period tree diagram for a customer who last purchased Brand A? O (0.25)X(0.75)-0.1875 B A 0.75 A 0.20 0.25 0.75 0.75 0.25 0.25 0.75 A B A B A 0.80 B 0.75 0.25 0.20 0.80 0.75 0.25 0.20 0.80 0.25 0.75 0.20 0.80 A B A B B A B A (0.25 0.25)-0.0625 A (0.25)(0.20)-0.0500 B (0.75)(0.20)-0.1500 (0.750.80)-0.6000 (0.75)(0.75)-0.5625 (0.75)(0.25)-0.1875 (0.25)(0.80)-0.2000 (0.25)(0.25)-0.0625 (0.25)(0.75)-0.1875 (0.75)(0.20)-0.1500 (0.75)(0.80)-0.6000

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QUESTION 1
The same scenario is used for all questions.
New parents in a little town buy two major brands of infant formulas, labeled A and B. After some intensive study, a marketing researcher for one of the manufacturers found that the probability of parents purchasing A or B is based on the parents' most recent purchase. Suppose that the following transition
probabilities are appropriate
O
Probabilities of Parents Purchasing A or B
From A
To A
To B
O
A
B
B
Which of the following is the correct two period tree diagram for a customer who last purchased Brand A?
O
A
0.75
A
0.20
0.25
0.75
0.75
0.25
0.25
0.75
A
B
A
B
A
0.25
B
0.80
0.75
0.25
0.20
0.80
0.75
0.25
0.20
0.80
0.25
0.75
0.20
0.80
A
B
A
B
A
B
A
B
A
B
A
B
(0.25)(0.75)-0.1875
(0.25)(0.25) 0.0625
(0.75)(0.20) 0.1500
(0.75)(0.80)-0.6000
(0.75)(0.75)=0.5625
(0.75)(0.25)-0.1875
(0.25)(0.20)-0.0500
(0.25)(0.80)-0.2000
(0.25)(0.25) 0.0625
(0.25)(0.75)-0.1875
(0.75)(0.20) 0.1500
(0.75)(0.80) 0.6000
Transcribed Image Text:QUESTION 1 The same scenario is used for all questions. New parents in a little town buy two major brands of infant formulas, labeled A and B. After some intensive study, a marketing researcher for one of the manufacturers found that the probability of parents purchasing A or B is based on the parents' most recent purchase. Suppose that the following transition probabilities are appropriate O Probabilities of Parents Purchasing A or B From A To A To B O A B B Which of the following is the correct two period tree diagram for a customer who last purchased Brand A? O A 0.75 A 0.20 0.25 0.75 0.75 0.25 0.25 0.75 A B A B A 0.25 B 0.80 0.75 0.25 0.20 0.80 0.75 0.25 0.20 0.80 0.25 0.75 0.20 0.80 A B A B A B A B A B A B (0.25)(0.75)-0.1875 (0.25)(0.25) 0.0625 (0.75)(0.20) 0.1500 (0.75)(0.80)-0.6000 (0.75)(0.75)=0.5625 (0.75)(0.25)-0.1875 (0.25)(0.20)-0.0500 (0.25)(0.80)-0.2000 (0.25)(0.25) 0.0625 (0.25)(0.75)-0.1875 (0.75)(0.20) 0.1500 (0.75)(0.80) 0.6000
QUESTION 3
Given a parent initially purchased Brand A, the probability that this parent purchases Brand B on the second purchase is
Ⓒ (0.75)(0.75)+(0.25)(0.20) 0.5625 +0.0500 = 0.6125
(0.20)(0.25)+(0.80)(0.80)= 0.0500 +0.6400 = 0.6900
Ⓒ (0.20)(0.75)+(0.80) (0.20) = 0.1500 +0.1600 = 0.3100
Ⓒ (0.75)(0.25)+(0.25)(0.80) = 0.1875 +0.2000 = 0.3875
O None of the above
QUESTION 4
Given a parent initially purchased Brand B. the probability that this parent purchases Brand A on the second purchase is
O (0.75)(0.75)+(0.25)(0.20) 0.5625 +0.0500 = 0.6125
(0.20)(0.25)+(0.80) (0.80)= 0.0500+ 0.6400 = 0.6900
(0.20)(0.75)+(0.80) (0.20) = 0.1500+ 0.1600 = 0.3100
Ⓒ (0.75)(0.25)+(0.25)(0.80) = 0.1875 +0.2000 = 0.3875
None of the above
QUESTION 5
Given a parent initially purchased Brand B. the probability that this parent purchases Brand B on the second purchase is
O (0.75)(0.75)+(0.25)(0.20) = 0.5625 +0.0500 = 0.6125
Ⓒ (0.20)(0.25)+(0.80)(0.80) = 0.0500 +0.6400 = 0.6900
Ⓒ (0.20)(0.75)+(0.80)(0.20) 0.1500+ 0.1600 = 0.3100
Ⓒ (0.75)(0.25)+(0.25)(0.80) = 0.1875 +0.2000 = 0.3875
O None of the above
QUESTION 6
Transcribed Image Text:QUESTION 3 Given a parent initially purchased Brand A, the probability that this parent purchases Brand B on the second purchase is Ⓒ (0.75)(0.75)+(0.25)(0.20) 0.5625 +0.0500 = 0.6125 (0.20)(0.25)+(0.80)(0.80)= 0.0500 +0.6400 = 0.6900 Ⓒ (0.20)(0.75)+(0.80) (0.20) = 0.1500 +0.1600 = 0.3100 Ⓒ (0.75)(0.25)+(0.25)(0.80) = 0.1875 +0.2000 = 0.3875 O None of the above QUESTION 4 Given a parent initially purchased Brand B. the probability that this parent purchases Brand A on the second purchase is O (0.75)(0.75)+(0.25)(0.20) 0.5625 +0.0500 = 0.6125 (0.20)(0.25)+(0.80) (0.80)= 0.0500+ 0.6400 = 0.6900 (0.20)(0.75)+(0.80) (0.20) = 0.1500+ 0.1600 = 0.3100 Ⓒ (0.75)(0.25)+(0.25)(0.80) = 0.1875 +0.2000 = 0.3875 None of the above QUESTION 5 Given a parent initially purchased Brand B. the probability that this parent purchases Brand B on the second purchase is O (0.75)(0.75)+(0.25)(0.20) = 0.5625 +0.0500 = 0.6125 Ⓒ (0.20)(0.25)+(0.80)(0.80) = 0.0500 +0.6400 = 0.6900 Ⓒ (0.20)(0.75)+(0.80)(0.20) 0.1500+ 0.1600 = 0.3100 Ⓒ (0.75)(0.25)+(0.25)(0.80) = 0.1875 +0.2000 = 0.3875 O None of the above QUESTION 6
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