Suppose you are on a game show and there are three closed doors. Behind one door is a car, and behind the other two doors are goats. Choose one door at random. What is the probability that you chose the winning door (the car)? Suppose that after you choose, but before your chosen door is opened, the host opens one of the unchosen doors, revealing a goat. The host then offers you the chance to change your choice to the remaining closed doors. What should you do? If you switch doors after one goat is revealed, does that increase, decrease, or have no effect on your chances? Why? What do you think the probability of winning is if you switch? If you don’t switch?

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
10th Edition
ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
Publisher:Sheldon Ross
Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...
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Suppose you are on a game show and there are three closed doors. Behind one door is a car, and behind the other two doors are goats. Choose one door at random.

  1. What is the probability that you chose the winning door (the car)?
  2. Suppose that after you choose, but before your chosen door is opened, the host opens one of the unchosen doors, revealing a goat. The host then offers you the chance to change your choice to the remaining closed doors. What should you do? If you switch doors after one goat is revealed, does that increase, decrease, or have no effect on your chances? Why? What do you think the probability of winning is if you switch? If you don’t switch? 
Expert Solution
Step 1: Calculate Probability chose the winning door initially

1) When you first choose a door, there are three doors to choose from, and only one of them is a winning door. So, the probability that you chose the winning door is:

P left parenthesis text  winning initially  end text right parenthesis equals 1 third text .  end text


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