Suppose you are a production manager for a small firm that manufactures designer phone cases. Your production facility utilizes three machines. Quality is binary — each phone case is either defective or it is not defective. Each hour, Machines 1, 2, and 3 produce 10, 10 and 20 phone cases, respectively. But because the machines differ slightly in their technology, data on past production has shown that they differ in terms of their rates of defective output — specifically, Machines 1, 2, and 3 have rates of defective production of 2%, 4%, and 5%, respectively. If one phone case is selected

Linear Algebra: A Modern Introduction
4th Edition
ISBN:9781285463247
Author:David Poole
Publisher:David Poole
Chapter2: Systems Of Linear Equations
Section2.4: Applications
Problem 28EQ
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Suppose you are a production manager for a small firm that manufactures designer phone cases. Your production facility utilizes three machines. Quality is binary — each phone case is either defective or it is not defective. Each hour, Machines 1, 2, and 3 produce 10, 10 and 20 phone cases, respectively. But because the machines differ slightly in their technology, data on past production has shown that they differ in terms of their rates of defective output — specifically, Machines 1, 2, and 3 have rates of defective production of 2%, 4%, and 5%, respectively. If one phone case is selected randomly from one hour’s total output, and that phone case is found to be defective, what is the probability that it was produced by Machine 1? Machine 2? Machine 3?

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