Suppose the following are the seasonal indices for the first three quarters of the year for a quarterly series: Quarter Seasonal Index Q1 73.7 Q2 87.4 Q3 106.3 Remember that the seasonal indices should average 100 so you should be able to infer the seasonal index for Q4. Furthermore, suppose that the estimated coeffcients from a regression of the deseasonalized series on Time are given below: Coefficients Intercept 1,937 Time 66.7 What is the forecast for period 67, if period 67 is a Q4? (please round your answer to 1 decimal place)

MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications
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Author:Amos Gilat
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QUESTION 9

  1. Suppose the following are the seasonal indices for the first three quarters of the year for a quarterly series:

     

Quarter

Seasonal Index

Q1

73.7

Q2

87.4

Q3

106.3

 

 


  1.  
    Remember that the seasonal indices should average 100 so you should be able to infer the seasonal index for Q4.

     
    Furthermore, suppose that the estimated coeffcients from a regression of the deseasonalized series on Time are given below:

     

 

Coefficients

Intercept

1,937

Time

66.7


  1.  
    What is the forecast for period 67, if period 67 is a Q4? (please round your answer to 1 decimal place)
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