Suppose that there is a 2.2% chance a planet will develop life, a 3.1% chance that the life will evolve into complex organisms, a 6.1% chance that complex organisms develop into advanced civilizations, and an X% chance that the advanced civilizations become intergalactic. If there are 1,351,006 planets, and we observe only 1 intergalactic civilization, what is the expected value of X? Note that X is in percentage form (e.g. 30.51 not 0.3051). You can round to two decimal places, but do not round until your final answer!

ENGR.ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
14th Edition
ISBN:9780190931919
Author:NEWNAN
Publisher:NEWNAN
Chapter1: Making Economics Decisions
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1QTC
icon
Related questions
Question
**Estimating the Probability of Advanced Civilizations Becoming Intergalactic**

*Suppose that there is a 2.2% chance a planet will develop life, a 3.1% chance that the life will evolve into complex organisms, a 6.1% chance that complex organisms develop into advanced civilizations, and an X% chance that the advanced civilizations become intergalactic.*

**Given Data:**
- Total number of planets: 1,351,006 
- Observed intergalactic civilizations: 1

**Task:** Determine the expected value of X, the chance that advanced civilizations become intergalactic.

**Note:**  
- X is in percentage form (e.g. 30.51 not 0.3051). 
- Round to two decimal places, but do not round until the final answer.

---

To find the expected value of X, follow sequential probabilistic steps based on the given percentages and final observations.

Use these guiding probabilities and observed values to solve for X%, ensuring that you maintain precision until the final rounding step.
Transcribed Image Text:**Estimating the Probability of Advanced Civilizations Becoming Intergalactic** *Suppose that there is a 2.2% chance a planet will develop life, a 3.1% chance that the life will evolve into complex organisms, a 6.1% chance that complex organisms develop into advanced civilizations, and an X% chance that the advanced civilizations become intergalactic.* **Given Data:** - Total number of planets: 1,351,006 - Observed intergalactic civilizations: 1 **Task:** Determine the expected value of X, the chance that advanced civilizations become intergalactic. **Note:** - X is in percentage form (e.g. 30.51 not 0.3051). - Round to two decimal places, but do not round until the final answer. --- To find the expected value of X, follow sequential probabilistic steps based on the given percentages and final observations. Use these guiding probabilities and observed values to solve for X%, ensuring that you maintain precision until the final rounding step.
Expert Solution
steps

Step by step

Solved in 3 steps

Blurred answer
Knowledge Booster
Expected Utility
Learn more about
Need a deep-dive on the concept behind this application? Look no further. Learn more about this topic, economics and related others by exploring similar questions and additional content below.
Similar questions
Recommended textbooks for you
ENGR.ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
ENGR.ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Economics
ISBN:
9780190931919
Author:
NEWNAN
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
Principles of Economics (12th Edition)
Principles of Economics (12th Edition)
Economics
ISBN:
9780134078779
Author:
Karl E. Case, Ray C. Fair, Sharon E. Oster
Publisher:
PEARSON
Engineering Economy (17th Edition)
Engineering Economy (17th Edition)
Economics
ISBN:
9780134870069
Author:
William G. Sullivan, Elin M. Wicks, C. Patrick Koelling
Publisher:
PEARSON
Principles of Economics (MindTap Course List)
Principles of Economics (MindTap Course List)
Economics
ISBN:
9781305585126
Author:
N. Gregory Mankiw
Publisher:
Cengage Learning
Managerial Economics: A Problem Solving Approach
Managerial Economics: A Problem Solving Approach
Economics
ISBN:
9781337106665
Author:
Luke M. Froeb, Brian T. McCann, Michael R. Ward, Mike Shor
Publisher:
Cengage Learning
Managerial Economics & Business Strategy (Mcgraw-…
Managerial Economics & Business Strategy (Mcgraw-…
Economics
ISBN:
9781259290619
Author:
Michael Baye, Jeff Prince
Publisher:
McGraw-Hill Education