Suppose that several people try to quantify their belief about the unknown probability parameter p, 0

MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications
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Author:Amos Gilat
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Suppose that several people try to quantify their belief about the unknown
probability parameter p, 0 <p < 1, of the geometric distribution with pmf
f(x\p) = (1 – p)²-'p on r= 1,2, 3, ... .
(a) The first person is not an expert and has no particular opinions on the
value of p. What is a suitable non-informative prior for this person to
use?
(b) Two experts, A and B, suggest two priors based on their knowledge of
the likely values for p: Expert A's suggested prior is Beta(5, 5), while
Expert B's is Beta(4, 10).
By calculating the variance of each prior, explain which expert has the
stronger prior, and hence who is more certain about their opinion.
(c) Give a single reason why a gamma or a normal prior would not be
suitable to use for p in this situation.
Transcribed Image Text:Suppose that several people try to quantify their belief about the unknown probability parameter p, 0 <p < 1, of the geometric distribution with pmf f(x\p) = (1 – p)²-'p on r= 1,2, 3, ... . (a) The first person is not an expert and has no particular opinions on the value of p. What is a suitable non-informative prior for this person to use? (b) Two experts, A and B, suggest two priors based on their knowledge of the likely values for p: Expert A's suggested prior is Beta(5, 5), while Expert B's is Beta(4, 10). By calculating the variance of each prior, explain which expert has the stronger prior, and hence who is more certain about their opinion. (c) Give a single reason why a gamma or a normal prior would not be suitable to use for p in this situation.
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