Suppose that in a certain small town it either rains or is sunny every day. A meteorologist notes that when it is sunny in this tow be sunny the next day with probability 0.6. If it rains, it will be sunny the next day with probability 0.3. Answer the following que 1. What is the probability that it will rain the next day if it was sunny the previous day? 0.4 2. Suppose that the weatherman estimates there is a 70% chance of showers today. Find the probability vector repres this estimation where the state 1 is sunny and state 2 is rainy. ...

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
10th Edition
ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
Publisher:Sheldon Ross
Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...
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Suppose that in a certain small town it either rains or is sunny every day. A meteorologist notes that when it is sunny in this town, it will be sunny the next day with probability 0.6. If it rains, it will be sunny the next day with probability 0.3. Answer the following questions:

1. **What is the probability that it will rain the next day if it was sunny the previous day?**

   - Answer: **0.4**

2. **Suppose that the weatherman estimates there is a 70% chance of showers today. Find the probability vector representing this estimation where state 1 is sunny and state 2 is rainy.**

   - Probability Vector: \(\begin{bmatrix} 0.3 \\ 0.7 \end{bmatrix}\)

3. **Based on the meteorologist’s estimation, what is the chance of rain tomorrow?**

   - Answer: **0.61**

4. **Based on the meteorologist’s estimation, what is the chance of rain two days from now?**

   - Answer: **0.343**
Transcribed Image Text:Suppose that in a certain small town it either rains or is sunny every day. A meteorologist notes that when it is sunny in this town, it will be sunny the next day with probability 0.6. If it rains, it will be sunny the next day with probability 0.3. Answer the following questions: 1. **What is the probability that it will rain the next day if it was sunny the previous day?** - Answer: **0.4** 2. **Suppose that the weatherman estimates there is a 70% chance of showers today. Find the probability vector representing this estimation where state 1 is sunny and state 2 is rainy.** - Probability Vector: \(\begin{bmatrix} 0.3 \\ 0.7 \end{bmatrix}\) 3. **Based on the meteorologist’s estimation, what is the chance of rain tomorrow?** - Answer: **0.61** 4. **Based on the meteorologist’s estimation, what is the chance of rain two days from now?** - Answer: **0.343**
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