Suppose a grocer is faced with a problem of how many cases of milk to stock to meet this week’s demand. The grocer estimates that 10, 15, 20, or 25 cases will be needed and wants to analyze the situation using a payoff table and decision theory to determine how many cases to stock.  Every case of milk costs the grocer $55 and will be sold for $90 (if sold during the week).   If there are cases left at the end of the week, they will be sold to a food bank for $30 per case.   Fill in the payoff table (Using Excel - calculate the payoff for each combination of cases of milk ordered and cases of milk demanded).       Cases demanded       10 15 20 25   Cases stocked 10         15         20         25           B. Assume the probability of demand is determined as in the table below.   Demand 10 cases 15 cases 20 cases 25 cases Probability .08 .25 .45 .22   Calculate the Expected monetary value for each alternative C. Based on the EMV results, how many cases should the grocer stock?

Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
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  1. Suppose a grocer is faced with a problem of how many cases of milk to stock to meet this week’s demand. The grocer estimates that 10, 15, 20, or 25 cases will be needed and wants to analyze the situation using a payoff table and decision theory to determine how many cases to stock.  Every case of milk costs the grocer $55 and will be sold for $90 (if sold during the week).  

If there are cases left at the end of the week, they will be sold to a food bank for $30 per case.

 

  1. Fill in the payoff table (Using Excel - calculate the payoff for each combination of cases of milk ordered and cases of milk demanded).

 

 

 

Cases demanded

 

 

 

10

15

20

25

 

Cases stocked

10

 

 

 

 

15

 

 

 

 

20

 

 

 

 

25

 

 

 

 

 

B. Assume the probability of demand is determined as in the table below.

 

Demand

10 cases

15 cases

20 cases

25 cases

Probability

.08

.25

.45

.22

 

Calculate the Expected monetary value for each alternative

C. Based on the EMV results, how many cases should the grocer stock?

 

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