Suppose a certain county reportedly has 42% registered Democrats, 42% registered Republicans, and 16% registered something else. A political poll surveys a sample of these registered voters, and 45% of the sample are Democrats. This is more than the 42% expected. There are several possibilities: perhaps the percentage of Democrats in the county is really more than 42%, perhaps the sample was not random, perhaps the sample intentionally oversampled Democrats, or perhaps it was just a fluke. There may be other possibilities, too. But as far as statistics goes, we can test the null hypothesis with probability methods. The null hypothesis is: The difference between the 45% observed in the sample and the 42% expected is due only to chance in the sampling. The county percentage of Democrats is actually greater than 42%. The poll did not randomly sample. The poll intentionally oversampled Democrats.

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Suppose a certain county reportedly has 42% registered Democrats, 42% registered Republicans, and 16%
registered something else. A political poll surveys a sample of these registered voters, and 45% of the sample are
Democrats. This is more than the 42% expected. There are several possibilities: perhaps the percentage of
Democrats in the county is really more than 42%, perhaps the sample was not random, perhaps the sample
intentionally oversampled Democrats, or perhaps it was just a fluke. There may be other possibilities, too. But as far
as statistics goes, we can test the null hypothesis with probability methods. The null hypothesis is:
The difference between the 45% observed in the sample and the 42% expected is due only to chance in the
sampling.
The county percentage of Democrats is actually greater than 42%.
The poll did not randomly sample.
The poll intentionally oversampled Democrats.
Transcribed Image Text:Suppose a certain county reportedly has 42% registered Democrats, 42% registered Republicans, and 16% registered something else. A political poll surveys a sample of these registered voters, and 45% of the sample are Democrats. This is more than the 42% expected. There are several possibilities: perhaps the percentage of Democrats in the county is really more than 42%, perhaps the sample was not random, perhaps the sample intentionally oversampled Democrats, or perhaps it was just a fluke. There may be other possibilities, too. But as far as statistics goes, we can test the null hypothesis with probability methods. The null hypothesis is: The difference between the 45% observed in the sample and the 42% expected is due only to chance in the sampling. The county percentage of Democrats is actually greater than 42%. The poll did not randomly sample. The poll intentionally oversampled Democrats.
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