Students at certain university have to pass of one these three courses (MAT102, STA105, and PHY110). The pass rates for the courses MAT 102, STA105, and PHY110 are 0.54, 0.79, and 0.86, respectively. Suppose that 30 candidates take the MAT102 course, 25 take the STA105 course and 20 take the PHY110 coruse. student takes one of these courses and passes. What are the probabilities that she took MAT102, STA105 or PHY110? Hint: Denote by Q the event a student to pass their course. Now denote by R1, R2 and R3 the events to take courses MAT102, STA105, and PHY110. The pass reates then represent the conditional probabilites: P(Q| R1), P(Q| R2) and P(Q| R3). The number of students taking the courses can be used to estimate the probabilities for R1, R2 and R3. For example, since there are total of 30 + 25 + 20 = 75 students that take the courses, for R1 we have: P(R1)= 30/75 = 2/5 What you are asked is: given that a student passes (event Q) estimate the probabilities that she took MAT102 (event R1), STA105 (event R2) or PHY110 (event R3). Use Bayes theorem to find them. P(R1 | Q) = P(R2 | Q) = P(R3 | Q) =

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Students at certain university have to pass of one these three courses (MAT102, STA105, and PHY110). The pass rates for the courses MAT 102, STA105, and PHY110 are 0.54, 0.79, and 0.86, respectively.
Suppose that 30 candidates take the MAT102 course, 25 take the STA105 course and 20 take the PHY110 coruse. A student takes one of these courses and passes. What are the probabilities that she took
MAT102, STA105 or PHY110?
Hint: Denote by Q the event a student to pass their course. Now denote by R1, R2 and R3 the events to take courses MAT102, STA105, and PHY110. The pass reates then represent the conditional
probabilites: P(Q| R1), P(Q| R2) and P(Q| R3). The number of students taking the courses can be used to estimate the probabilities for R1, R2 and R3. For example, since there are total of 30 + 25 + 20 = 75
students that take the courses, for R1 we have:
P(R1) = 30/75 = 2/5
What you are asked is: given that a student passes (event Q) estimate the probabilities that she took MAT102 (event R1), STA105 (event R2) or PHY110 (event R3). Use Bayes theorem to find them.
P(R1 | Q) =
P(R2 | Q) =
P(R3 | Q) =
Transcribed Image Text:Students at certain university have to pass of one these three courses (MAT102, STA105, and PHY110). The pass rates for the courses MAT 102, STA105, and PHY110 are 0.54, 0.79, and 0.86, respectively. Suppose that 30 candidates take the MAT102 course, 25 take the STA105 course and 20 take the PHY110 coruse. A student takes one of these courses and passes. What are the probabilities that she took MAT102, STA105 or PHY110? Hint: Denote by Q the event a student to pass their course. Now denote by R1, R2 and R3 the events to take courses MAT102, STA105, and PHY110. The pass reates then represent the conditional probabilites: P(Q| R1), P(Q| R2) and P(Q| R3). The number of students taking the courses can be used to estimate the probabilities for R1, R2 and R3. For example, since there are total of 30 + 25 + 20 = 75 students that take the courses, for R1 we have: P(R1) = 30/75 = 2/5 What you are asked is: given that a student passes (event Q) estimate the probabilities that she took MAT102 (event R1), STA105 (event R2) or PHY110 (event R3). Use Bayes theorem to find them. P(R1 | Q) = P(R2 | Q) = P(R3 | Q) =
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