Seattle Mariners are playing a game. It usually rains on avg 30% of game days. When it rains, 85% of the time weather forecast was for rain, on days with no rain only 20% of the time rain was forecasted.  What's the probability that it rains on a game day given that the weather forecast predicts rain on that day.

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
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Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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Seattle Mariners are playing a game. It usually rains on avg 30% of game days. When it rains, 85% of the time weather forecast was for rain, on days with no rain only 20% of the time rain was forecasted.  What's the probability that it rains on a game day given that the weather forecast predicts rain on that day.

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Step 1

Given that,

P(rain) = 0.30

P(no rain) =1-0.30=0.70

P(forecast predict rain| rain)=0.85

P(forecast predict rain| no rain)=0.20

 

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